The Feed

Lookin At The Rest Of The NFL

The Jets host the Texans on Sunday fresh off a week that saw questions about Chad Pennington's job status. The talk has died down, thankfully in my opinion because too much was being made of his struggles against the best defense in the NFC, and number 10 will be back under center at 1PM. The Texans have won three games all year, all of them against teams from Florida interestingly, and lost at Giants Stadium earlier this month to the Giants. They've shown a great deal of defensive improvement but not nearly enough offensive firepower to make themselves a winning football team. The Jets D has been inspired in the last two weeks and I believe that they will carry Gang Green to a mammoth win for the Jet playoff hopes. JETS (-5.5) over Houston.

BUFFALO (+3) over Jacksonville - Warm weather team in the frigidest place on Earth in November. Even J.P. Losman isn't enough to make me think that's a good spot for a Jaguar team that's blander than instant mashed potatoes.

BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh - Firing a friend is usually not the best route to good karma but I must say, it becomes Brian Billick. Since jettisoning the offensive stylings of Jim Fassel the Ravens haven't lost and have even looked, dare I say it, frisky when they have the ball in their hands.

Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND - A lot of three point lines this week, eh? The Browns are one of those teams that play a lot of close games which are easy to misinterpret as them being close to a winning team. I think they are a lot closer to being really bad however and I think the Bengals got their house in order last week to make a last chance playoff power drive.

Arizona (+6.5) over MINNESOTA - I don't think there's a football team in the country that's a touchdown worse than the Vikings. When you throw in Denny Green's emotional return to the Twin Cities...

San Francisco (+5.5) over ST. LOUIS - Frank Gore is a pretty good running back and Alex Smith looks like a decent QB in Norv Turner's system. The Rams are reeling and the Niners are actually sniffing around the playoffs - hard to see why Danny Sheridan is so bullish on the Rams in other words.

ATLANTA (-3) over New Orleans - Two desperate teams trying to stay ahead of the quick rising Panthers. It should be an offensive explosion as neither team has a defense worth much of anything but Drew Brees is a little shorter on weapons this week and the Falcons are dead if they lose this game.

Carolina (-4) over WASHINGTON - The Joe Gibbs era continues its limp toward a second finishing line while the Panthers, playing catch-up all season, finally move into first place in the division.

NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Chicago - Three road games in a row for the Bears, they played like garbage and escaped with a win last week but I don't think they'll be able to pull that trick twice in seven days. The Patriots were on point last week and after a week of hearing how the Jets would pull past them seem ready to stick the dagger into the divisional race.

INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over Philadelphia - The Colts got that pesky loss out of the way and can now focus in on beating Jeff Garcia like the twice-dumped retread that he is.

TENNESSEE (+3) over Giants - A lot's been made of the Giants injury issues but the fact of the matter is this team just does not step up and play hard enough, long enough or well enough to be a contender. If Eli Manning is what he's supposed to be it wouldn't matter that Amani Toomer and Luke Petitgout were out, quite frankly, and even shorthanded the defense should have been able to handle David Garrard better than they did on Monday night. Tom Coughlin's supposed to be a real line in the sand, disciplinarian but his team quits on a weekly basis and makes the same mistakes over and over again which makes me think he's full of hot air.

SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland - Whatever planet sent us the wonderous LaDanian Tomlinson gets a super Thanksgiving Day pat on the back from me and my fantasy squad. I think we're looking at the best season by a running back in my lifetime with #21 and I think he keeps the touchdown train a rolling against the Raiders.

Green Bay (+9.5) over SEATTLE - Just a hunch that Favre both plays and plays well.

(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun, File)

Lookin At The NFL - Thanksgiving Day Games

Miami (-2.5) over DETROIT - Joey Harrington favored in a game being played in Detroit? For that we must give thanks to Nick Saban, Daunte Culpepper and Matt Millen in equal order. Saban for taking a shot on putting Harrington under center, Culpepper for being a bust and Millen for putting together a team that's an underdog to Harrington. Kevin Jones is banged up robbing Detroit of its offensive balance while Miami's turned their season around this month. I don't think that will change against a team that lost to the Cardinals last week.

DALLAS (-11) over Tampa Bay - Dallas gets a day to say thanks to Tony Romo for saving their season while Simeon Rice joins Chris Simms among key Bucs who will be able to have stuffing with their families. Without Rice the Bucs can't exploit the shaky line play of the Cowboys and Bruce Gradowski isn't going to do better against a keyed-up, nasty defense than Peyton Manning did a few days ago.

KANSAS CITY (PK) over Denver - It's a nationally televised Thanksgiving night game between fierce division rivals. It's the first game ever telecast via the NFL Network featuring Bryant Gumbel at a microphone he might actually use for more than the everyday blather. On one side you have Larry Johnson toting the rock, Herman Edwards playing the clock and an Arrowhead crowd in full throat after a day spent packing their guts. On the other side it's the crafty Mike Shanahan, Champ Bailey ballhawking and one guy or another by the name of Bell running behind a great offensive line. And, of course, the chance to watch Jake Plummer's career immolating himself in front of a Sea of Red. Then there will really be a lot of things more important than Jake Plummer in Denver. Namely Jay Cutler.

Oh and one other thing - I won't be able to watch one hot minute of it. Time Warner doesn't carry the NFL Network because the league demands that they be part of a basic cable package while Time Warner and several other large cable providers believe that it should be available to subscribers who choose to pay more for it. There's a lot of issues tied up in it, read this article for a fuller look, but basically it's 2006 and despite there being a way to televise seven hours of live football during the day featuring the Dolphins, Bucs and Lions there's no way to show the only decent game of the three. That's fucked up. I know there are more important things - poverty, AIDS, Jake Plummer - but how can that happen when there's a dollar to be made? Downright un-American.

(AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

He's Got The Look

Super Bowls aren’t the easiest games to predict. Both teams have a ton of time to prepare, watch video, implement game plans and all the other things that are usually compressed over 3 or 4 regular season games. That’s tempered, though, by the excess of press coverage, extended time away from home and the assorted other distractions that come with a berth in the Big Game. It’s difficult to gauge how those things will affect a team, as each one’s got a different mix and with 106 players there’s bound to be a wild card or ten. If a team keeps making it to the game you can read the trends better, Parcells and Belichick will come into the game well prepared while your Marv Levy’s will have ignored the need to put in new wrinkles and looks leading up to kickoff. Things like that matter.

It Always Rains In Seattle

It always rains in Seattle. That and grunge music. That's my opinion on why no one's  paid any mind to the Seattle Seahawks this week. Everywhere you look someone's picking the Panthers. Peter King and Dr. Z at SI both took the Panthers, they've gotten the rub from ESPN's cast of characters but the buck stops here. The Seahawks are the better team and are going to win on Sunday.

I Wish I Knew How To Quit You

Quite the sad little life Tom Brady's carved out for himself, eh? Week 2 of the NFL Playoffs give Brady another chance to add to his unmarred record as a quarterback when the money's on the line and with the Holy See behind him I'm not about to start betting against him. No word on who is in Jake Plummer's corner, spiritually speaking, but I think it's safe to say that Tom Brady has friends in high places.  The picks are below:

Week 1 Playoff Picks

Round 1 of the NFL playoffs is usually easier to figure out. There’s a road favorite playing a team that blew them out home, a couple of teams that are on fire and untested playoff quarterbacks all over the place. All of which means it should be a spectacular weekend of action.

Week 16 Picks

And so the clock strikes 16 on the NFL season and Santa’s got a bag full of games that will fill in the few remaining blanks in the NFL playoff picture. It’s like one of those advent calendars from “Bad Santa” where each door reveals another team, from the candy corn all the way up to the gold nugget on the last day.

The bulk of the games are on Saturday and none of the good ones are in the Sunday and Monday nationally televised slots. That’s too bad; I think a Christmas day games are a great idea for the NFL, regardless of what day of the week it falls on, it’s just too bad this years selections are so crummy. Sunday has 2 NBA games in the afternoon and 2 NFL games in the evening, but while the NBA features the Spurs in Detroit and the Lakers in Miami the NFL is stuck with Chicago-Green Bay and Minnesota-Baltimore. Still, there are a bunch of good ones on Saturday and there’s enough great sports on TV this weekend to keep your dreidel spinning well into next week.

NFL Week 15 Picks

Last week we took it on the chin as the NFL decided to break from its status quo and there were actually upsets and closer games than expected around the league. The spreads are back in the single digits this week, and while some situations have gotten cloudier we still have a pretty good idea what to expect in this week’s games. The NFL has a slate of games on both Saturday and Sunday so even those of us who are refused access to the full package of action on a weekly basis will get a chance to take in up to 8 games. We’ll start with tomorrow’s games and move through to the Monday night thriller, hopefully picking with a bit more accuracy than we found last week. As always, these picks come with the Patrick Ewing Guarantee.

Week 14 Picks

The final four games of the NFL season are here and little remains to be settled as far as the playoffs. In the AFC, the Colts, Broncos, Bengals and Patriots will win their divisions with the Jags virtually assured of one wild card spot. My pick for the other spot is coming down to the Chargers and Steelers and with Roethlisberger banged up I think the Bolts will sneak in the last spot. Over in the lackluster NFC, the Seahawks, Bears, Panthers are in, I think the Giants will win the East and that the wild cards will go to the Vikings and the Cowboys. The picks for this week follow and, as always, come with the Patrick Ewing Guarantee. 

Week 13 Picks

Some big divisional rivalries are on center stage this weekend, and when all has shaken out we should all have a better idea about who is playoff bound and who isn't. Without further ado:

Cincinnati (+3.5) vs. PITTSBURGH - Pittsburgh won the first meeting of these two teams, 27-13, in Cinci. They won the onfield battle as well as the mental one, but the Bengals learned from that loss and have played lights out ball since then, losing only to Indianapolis. Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight and Ben Roethlisberger is still working his way back to playing shape. They ran the ball 47 times in beating the Bengals the first time, if they do that again this pick is wrong, but the money here is that Big Ben will have to put the ball in the air more and that the Bengals will do more when they have the ball. I think a field goal is the final margin in this one, and while I go back and forth as to who will be on top, the line is my friend and not forcing me to choose. Chad Johnson will be doing selections from "Chicago" if he scores once and will do an interpretative dance about poverty in the Third World should he reach the end zone a second time.

INDIANAPOLIS (-16) vs. Tennessee - This is a monster line and, coupled with the chance the Colts might be looking beyond this game, gives me a moment's pause before picking the Colts. But then I remember Monday night and the 26-7 undressing of the Steelers and think that they might be up 35-0 at the half. At that point Jim Sorgi could take you home to a cover. A big reason why I think the Colts have a legit chance to run the table is how relentlessly they have played every week. With a team that talented, a slip in focus is necessary to beat them and with Manning at the helm I just don't see that happening.

Atlanta (+3) vs. CAROLINA - I may be giving too much weight to the extra three days off in this case. These teams play twice over the last 5 games and if one team sweeps that'll be your division champion. Falcons ran the ball like crazy against Detroit, obviously a higher caliber defense will be against them this weekend, but the Panthers can't run the ball. Unless Vick makes a few mistakes I think the Falcons will be able to hold onto the ball and do some things downfield with it. The lack of a running game allows teams worse than Atlanta to hang around the Panthers all game, even the Jets were down just a touchdown well into the second half before they started turning the ball over in a frenzy. I think the Falcons have put things together at the right time this season and will win this game outright.

Tampa (-3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS - Weird game, as Tampa doesn't inspire much from me. Yes they are 7-4 but they haven't been particularly impressive in getting there. They've lost to the Jets and 49ers on the road, which gives even greater reason to not like them in this spot. I trust Aaron Brooks even less though and think Jon Gruden will lay it on the line for his team that this isn't a game they can even consider losing. Cadillac Williams should have success on the ground and keep Simms out of difficult situations against a poor defensive squad.

Green Bay (+7) vs. CHICAGO - No, I haven't jumped off the Bearwagon. I saw Michael Wilbon of PTI talking about this game the other day. Wilbon, a Chicago native and Bear fan, said this was the game that kept him up at night. I can understand why. Brett Favre is 21-5 lifetime vs. the Bears and has won 11 straight at Soldier Field. In a season like the Pack has had, players like Favre look for spots to play spoilers and there isn't a bigger spot than this. Bears coming off 2 straight impressive wins, a poor opponent at home; it all adds up to a great spot for an upset. I won't go that far, as I think the history between the teams should counteract overlooking the Packers. I think the Bears will hold on and win a close, low scoring 14-10 type of a game. Samkon Gado has had some fumbleitis, which plays right into the attacking Bears defense, as does Favre's penchant for the big mistake. One or the other will be decisive in this one and allow the Bearwagon to roll on.   

Minnesota (-3) vs. DETROIT - It was probably an interesting week in Detroit. Mariucci was fired, in part because he was for playing Jeff Garcia at QB, Dre Bly said it was Joey Harrington's fault Mariucci was fired and interim coach Dick Jauron installed Garcia as the starter. Matt Millen should have been swept out with Mariucci, the team is 20-56 since he took over and he clearly has never had a plan in place to move this team forward. Minnesota has been playing well, classic "Us against the world" mentality and I think they will roll over the Lions this weekend. One of the most interesting things to watch this offseason is the Mike Tice situation. This team has clearly rallied together and, assuming this win, will be 7-5 with 5 straight victories. If they do fire Tice after that they had better have a real ace in the hole as the next coach, as a peek at the schedule reveals 9-7 as a likely record for the Vikes which, playoffs or not, in this season should earn Tice another year.

MIAMI (-4) vs. Buffalo - Can't figure out either of these teams, other than that neither one is all that good. Nick Saban basically threw in the towel on the season after the Fins were shut out by Cleveland and the team responds by crushing Oakland on the road. The move back to Gus Frerotte was the only one they could make, he's a competent NFL QB and Sage Rosenfels isn't, especially since Ricky Williams has begun contributing to a grind it out rushing attack. Buffalo attacks the same way, with Willis McGahee in their case, though it produced zippo vs. the Panthers last weekend. I'm really searching for anything to say about this game, and failing, as either result means bupkis in the long run. Take the Dolphins at home and watch something else.

Houston (+8) vs. BALTIMORE - Speaking of games worth bupkis. I'm pulling for the Texans as the only implications in this game is the Reggie Bush derby and, win or lose, teams with Kyle Boller at QB aren't 8 points better than anyone.

Jacksonville (-3) vs. CLEVELAND - Byron Leftwich is out for the rest of the regular season, but Fred Taylor should play and that and a stout defense  should be enough this week. New starters at QB usually get thrown into the pool but the Browns are like a hot tub that you ease your way into. David Garrard should be comfortable, he has been the backup forever, and Jack Del Rio will have his club ready to play, knowing that if he cleans up an easy schedule he could have his guy back come the playoffs.

GIANTS (-3) vs. Dallas - It's another marquee divisional matchup, all the richer given the history of the two teams and a man they call Tuna. I think Parcells has done a terrific job with the Cowboys this season, maximizing a mixed bag of talent and building a defense that can beat anyone. They still have Drew Bledsoe under center though, no matter how many yards he throws for he is good for a miscue or three under pressure. The Giants should turn the pass rush loose on immobile Bledsoe, watch for Osi Umenyiora to have another big Sunday, and that will result in the aforementioned Bledsoe mistakes. Offensively, Giants have to stop jumping offsides, which they should at home, and stay focused on feeding Tiki Barber the ball all day long. The loser of this one will be fighting for their playoff lives, and I think it will be the Tuna who has to circle the wagons. 

NEW ENGLAND (-10) vs. Jets - This one hurts as it's absolutely the pick I feel strongest about all weekend. The Patriots have a playoff spot locked up and just need to find their step over the last 5 weeks of the season. No better team to use as practice than the Jets. Even if the Jets D plays well, they can't hold onto or move the ball and the Pats will get to play on short fields all day. Even Corey Dillon-less that's too easy for Tom Brady and this could be another ugly one for the faithful.

SAN FRANCISCO (+3) vs. Arizona - This weekend is pretty much an even split between meaningful games and utter uselessness. Another pick based on the Reggie Bush derby and nothing else. I'm just going with the home dog here.

ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Washington - Mike Martz said this week he would like to return to the Rams sidelines next season. Health concerns aside, that ain't happening. The team stopped taking his phone calls, they gave his parking space to an intern and the security guards have strict instructions to shoot him on sight. Rich Kotite has a better chance of coaching St. Louis in the future.

KANSAS CITY (+1) vs. Denver - You won't see Ron Dayne run so well this weekend. No turkey dinner as post-game enticement. Jake Plummer's mustache has turned his career around, it's really the difference between Shaky Jake and Jake the Snake. If you're gonna be called Jake the Snake a sleazy 'stache is really a must. This pick more about Arrowhead Stadium then the teams involved; I still think Denver wins the division and think that K.C. misses the playoffs. For this week though, the hordes of crimson clad fans should rally the Chiefs to a late victory. 

SAN DIEGO (-11.5) vs. Oakland - The Sunday Night Theisman-fest. Somewhere around the 3rd quarter, as Joe is telling us how he spoke to Kerry Collins last night who told him he's never felt better and is really going to play well, Collins will be picked off and the Chargers will roll the Raiders from there. Chargers are a much better team with a lot to play for and should do anything they want against the Raider defense.

Seattle (-4) vs. PHILADELPHIA - I actually think the Eagles have a chance in this one, but only because Seattle struggled on Eastern swings earlier this season. With the playoffs looming and a first round bye up for grabs I don't see another letdown happening. Shaun Alexander should feast on the Philly line while opening up the downfield for the resurgent Joe Jurevicius to have another strong game.

Last week: 10-6