Some big divisional rivalries are on center stage this weekend, and when all has shaken out we should all have a better idea about who is playoff bound and who isn't. Without further ado:
Cincinnati (+3.5) vs. PITTSBURGH - Pittsburgh won the first meeting of these two teams, 27-13, in Cinci. They won the onfield battle as well as the mental one, but the Bengals learned from that loss and have played lights out ball since then, losing only to Indianapolis. Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight and Ben Roethlisberger is still working his way back to playing shape. They ran the ball 47 times in beating the Bengals the first time, if they do that again this pick is wrong, but the money here is that Big Ben will have to put the ball in the air more and that the Bengals will do more when they have the ball. I think a field goal is the final margin in this one, and while I go back and forth as to who will be on top, the line is my friend and not forcing me to choose. Chad Johnson will be doing selections from "Chicago" if he scores once and will do an interpretative dance about poverty in the Third World should he reach the end zone a second time.
INDIANAPOLIS (-16) vs. Tennessee - This is a monster line and, coupled with the chance the Colts might be looking beyond this game, gives me a moment's pause before picking the Colts. But then I remember Monday night and the 26-7 undressing of the Steelers and think that they might be up 35-0 at the half. At that point Jim Sorgi could take you home to a cover. A big reason why I think the Colts have a legit chance to run the table is how relentlessly they have played every week. With a team that talented, a slip in focus is necessary to beat them and with Manning at the helm I just don't see that happening.
Atlanta (+3) vs. CAROLINA - I may be giving too much weight to the extra three days off in this case. These teams play twice over the last 5 games and if one team sweeps that'll be your division champion. Falcons ran the ball like crazy against Detroit, obviously a higher caliber defense will be against them this weekend, but the Panthers can't run the ball. Unless Vick makes a few mistakes I think the Falcons will be able to hold onto the ball and do some things downfield with it. The lack of a running game allows teams worse than Atlanta to hang around the Panthers all game, even the Jets were down just a touchdown well into the second half before they started turning the ball over in a frenzy. I think the Falcons have put things together at the right time this season and will win this game outright.
Tampa (-3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS - Weird game, as Tampa doesn't inspire much from me. Yes they are 7-4 but they haven't been particularly impressive in getting there. They've lost to the Jets and 49ers on the road, which gives even greater reason to not like them in this spot. I trust Aaron Brooks even less though and think Jon Gruden will lay it on the line for his team that this isn't a game they can even consider losing. Cadillac Williams should have success on the ground and keep Simms out of difficult situations against a poor defensive squad.
Green Bay (+7) vs. CHICAGO - No, I haven't jumped off the Bearwagon. I saw Michael Wilbon of PTI talking about this game the other day. Wilbon, a Chicago native and Bear fan, said this was the game that kept him up at night. I can understand why. Brett Favre is 21-5 lifetime vs. the Bears and has won 11 straight at Soldier Field. In a season like the Pack has had, players like Favre look for spots to play spoilers and there isn't a bigger spot than this. Bears coming off 2 straight impressive wins, a poor opponent at home; it all adds up to a great spot for an upset. I won't go that far, as I think the history between the teams should counteract overlooking the Packers. I think the Bears will hold on and win a close, low scoring 14-10 type of a game. Samkon Gado has had some fumbleitis, which plays right into the attacking Bears defense, as does Favre's penchant for the big mistake. One or the other will be decisive in this one and allow the Bearwagon to roll on.
Minnesota (-3) vs. DETROIT - It was probably an interesting week in Detroit. Mariucci was fired, in part because he was for playing Jeff Garcia at QB, Dre Bly said it was Joey Harrington's fault Mariucci was fired and interim coach Dick Jauron installed Garcia as the starter. Matt Millen should have been swept out with Mariucci, the team is 20-56 since he took over and he clearly has never had a plan in place to move this team forward. Minnesota has been playing well, classic "Us against the world" mentality and I think they will roll over the Lions this weekend. One of the most interesting things to watch this offseason is the Mike Tice situation. This team has clearly rallied together and, assuming this win, will be 7-5 with 5 straight victories. If they do fire Tice after that they had better have a real ace in the hole as the next coach, as a peek at the schedule reveals 9-7 as a likely record for the Vikes which, playoffs or not, in this season should earn Tice another year.
MIAMI (-4) vs. Buffalo - Can't figure out either of these teams, other than that neither one is all that good. Nick Saban basically threw in the towel on the season after the Fins were shut out by Cleveland and the team responds by crushing Oakland on the road. The move back to Gus Frerotte was the only one they could make, he's a competent NFL QB and Sage Rosenfels isn't, especially since Ricky Williams has begun contributing to a grind it out rushing attack. Buffalo attacks the same way, with Willis McGahee in their case, though it produced zippo vs. the Panthers last weekend. I'm really searching for anything to say about this game, and failing, as either result means bupkis in the long run. Take the Dolphins at home and watch something else.
Houston (+8) vs. BALTIMORE - Speaking of games worth bupkis. I'm pulling for the Texans as the only implications in this game is the Reggie Bush derby and, win or lose, teams with Kyle Boller at QB aren't 8 points better than anyone.
Jacksonville (-3) vs. CLEVELAND - Byron Leftwich is out for the rest of the regular season, but Fred Taylor should play and that and a stout defense should be enough this week. New starters at QB usually get thrown into the pool but the Browns are like a hot tub that you ease your way into. David Garrard should be comfortable, he has been the backup forever, and Jack Del Rio will have his club ready to play, knowing that if he cleans up an easy schedule he could have his guy back come the playoffs.
GIANTS (-3) vs. Dallas - It's another marquee divisional matchup, all the richer given the history of the two teams and a man they call Tuna. I think Parcells has done a terrific job with the Cowboys this season, maximizing a mixed bag of talent and building a defense that can beat anyone. They still have Drew Bledsoe under center though, no matter how many yards he throws for he is good for a miscue or three under pressure. The Giants should turn the pass rush loose on immobile Bledsoe, watch for Osi Umenyiora to have another big Sunday, and that will result in the aforementioned Bledsoe mistakes. Offensively, Giants have to stop jumping offsides, which they should at home, and stay focused on feeding Tiki Barber the ball all day long. The loser of this one will be fighting for their playoff lives, and I think it will be the Tuna who has to circle the wagons.
NEW ENGLAND (-10) vs. Jets - This one hurts as it's absolutely the pick I feel strongest about all weekend. The Patriots have a playoff spot locked up and just need to find their step over the last 5 weeks of the season. No better team to use as practice than the Jets. Even if the Jets D plays well, they can't hold onto or move the ball and the Pats will get to play on short fields all day. Even Corey Dillon-less that's too easy for Tom Brady and this could be another ugly one for the faithful.
SAN FRANCISCO (+3) vs. Arizona - This weekend is pretty much an even split between meaningful games and utter uselessness. Another pick based on the Reggie Bush derby and nothing else. I'm just going with the home dog here.
ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Washington - Mike Martz said this week he would like to return to the Rams sidelines next season. Health concerns aside, that ain't happening. The team stopped taking his phone calls, they gave his parking space to an intern and the security guards have strict instructions to shoot him on sight. Rich Kotite has a better chance of coaching St. Louis in the future.
KANSAS CITY (+1) vs. Denver - You won't see Ron Dayne run so well this weekend. No turkey dinner as post-game enticement. Jake Plummer's mustache has turned his career around, it's really the difference between Shaky Jake and Jake the Snake. If you're gonna be called Jake the Snake a sleazy 'stache is really a must. This pick more about Arrowhead Stadium then the teams involved; I still think Denver wins the division and think that K.C. misses the playoffs. For this week though, the hordes of crimson clad fans should rally the Chiefs to a late victory.
SAN DIEGO (-11.5) vs. Oakland - The Sunday Night Theisman-fest. Somewhere around the 3rd quarter, as Joe is telling us how he spoke to Kerry Collins last night who told him he's never felt better and is really going to play well, Collins will be picked off and the Chargers will roll the Raiders from there. Chargers are a much better team with a lot to play for and should do anything they want against the Raider defense.
Seattle (-4) vs. PHILADELPHIA - I actually think the Eagles have a chance in this one, but only because Seattle struggled on Eastern swings earlier this season. With the playoffs looming and a first round bye up for grabs I don't see another letdown happening. Shaun Alexander should feast on the Philly line while opening up the downfield for the resurgent Joe Jurevicius to have another strong game.
Last week: 10-6