The Feed

The Crystal Ball

We are about 48 hours away from pitch one of the 2007 baseball season and all month The Feed's been featuring previews of the teams, players and stories that will keep us entertained through October. We'll do a wrapup of the divisional picks, with unscientific predicted records, a few other predictions and, of course, our thoughts on how the postseason will shake out.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - San Diego Padres

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Jake Peavy. Has any other pitcher had a better terrible season than Peavy had in 2006? Before you tell me that I don’t write the English that good, take a look at Peavy’s stats. 11-14 and a 4.09ERA aren’t numbers you associate with the elite pitchers of America but take a closer look and you’ll see that Peavy was unluckier than William H. Macy in The Cooler. He struck out 215 batters in 202 innings, had a peripheral (or expected) ERA of 3.47 is a statistical measure of bad luck and the Pods should have gone 18-14 in his starts. The natural swing of the pendulum back in his direction could mean Cy for the talented Peavy.
2. Trevor Hoffman. The National League’s closest American, unionized equivalent to Mariano Rivera, Hoffman became the all-time saves leader last summer. He has shown no signs of slowing down after 2003 shoulder surgery seemed to threaten his career and may throw the most devastating changeup these eyes have ever seen. Yes, including Pedro. You can set your clock to Hoffman as the bell that tolls upon his entrance makes quite clear.
3. Adrian Gonzalez. The first overall pick of the 2000 draft Gonzalez was very slow in developing. He went from Florida to Texas to San Diego before finally sticking in the big leagues but it seems that all the waiting and all the traveling was worthwhile. He hits for average and for power to all fields while wielding some spiffy leather in the field. And he’s only 25 in May. 

3 Things To Worry About

1. The infield shuffle. The Padres made an interesting trade this winter when they dealt the impressive young second baseman Josh Barfield to Cleveland for another young player Kevin Kouzmanoff. He can pound the ball – he’s the first player to hit a grand slam in his first MLB at-bat, but has a back injury that’s cost him time in each of the last two seasons. He can’t field, either, but that’s less of a concern than his problems staying in the lineup. To replace Barfield they picked up Marcus Giles, which is nice for his brother Brian. It would be nice for the Pods if playing together spurs the Giles boys back from career-worst seasons. Both men will have to produce to make up for whatever Barfield does as his career unfolds.
2. David Wells. How many weight related maladies can one professional athlete suffer? Wells already beat gout but got a much worse diagnosis this spring when he found out that he has diabetes. The disease is a direct result of Wells’ lax approach to staying in shape and calls into question how heavily the Padres can rely on him during the 2007 season.
3. Leftfield. The departure of Dave Roberts left a hole in left that the Friars never really filled with an adequate replacement. Jose Cruz Jr. has the longest resume of the candidates for work but none of his recent work experience does much to recommend him for the job. Termel Sledge did okay with the Expos in 2004 and very well in AAA last year but neither of those really do much to inspire confidence. Jack Cust is the prize pig of sabermetricians everywhere for his excellent on-base and slugging percentages in the minors but has never made good on chances in the pros. Paul McNulty is another 4A All-Star who has offensive pedigree but the proof remains in the pudding for all of these guys. 

3 Questions To Answer

1. Is San Diego’s Chris Young the best Chris Young in the West? Arizona rookie centerfielder Chris Young should challenge for the Rookie of the Year award but the imposing former Princeton cager who pitches for the Pods could still be the more impressive Young. At 6’10” he struggles with keeping the ball down but when he does he’s damn near unhittable and it’s not stretching things too far to say that he could actually outperform Peavy and be the best starter at PETCO this summer. The addition of Greg Maddux could help him fine tune his physical gifts. 
2. What did Khalil Greene ever do to anyone anyway? The paradigm of shortstops may have changed a decade ago with the holy A-Rod/Jeter/Nomar trilogy but that doesn’t mean that teams take power from that position for granted. Greene has hit 15 home runs in each of the last three seasons but has missed chunks of time with injury each year and those injuries seem to be taking their toll on the other facets of his game. A full season from Greene would help push the offense into the gear required for admission to October.
3. Will the Padres bat the right Giles brother in the leadoff spot? It seems likely that Marcus Giles will be handling the duties of leadoff hitter for the Friars this summer but that’s not the right brother for the job. Brian Giles has a career .408 on-base percentage and is coming off his worst year as a power hitter. That seems to add up to a move from the middle of the order to the top of it where his patience and experience will help set the table for his brother, Gonzalez, Mike Cameron and Kouzmanoff rather than suffering the continued regression of his pop.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

The Padres have done a poor job of drafting over the past few years. Greene is the only first round pick since 1998 to make the majors and mega-busts like Matt Bush, 2004’s first overall pick, outnumber the guys who panned out. Cesar Carillo, the 2005 first round pick, hopes to change that trend. He had elbow trouble last season but it seems inevitable that San Diego will have to replace Wells at some point this summer and they’d be very happy if Carillo shows enough to step into the rotation. Otherwise Kouzmanoff is the only rookie or younger who will make an impact on the veteran club.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

The Padres have the best pitching in the West and an intriguing offensive mix. There’s power all over the place but they play in a park that can hold down production. If Gonzalez continues to progress and Greene and Kouzmanoff remain healthy all year they should be able to overcome those stadium effects and score enough runs to make their pitchers look very good. But, if injuries strike and no leftfielder establishes himself it will be very hard for the Friars to shake free of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Neither of those pursuers is that far behind to begin with and a couple of bad breaks for the Padres could be enough to drop them into third.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. John Lackey. He doesn’t have the name of a dominant starter but he does have the stuff of one. He made a huge initial splash in the 2002 World Series run and hasn’t looked back since, using a lot of strikeouts to keep the ball in the park and needing only better run support to challenge the 20-win mark. Johan Santana has the inside track on every AL Cy Young Award but Lackey should be among the other votegetters come November.
2. Vladimir Guerrero. Batters that make contact with the ease Vlad does simply aren’t supposed to do so much damage when they hit the ball. Usually they are content to be speedy singles hitters but Guerrero remains one of the most feared power hitters in baseball even though he swings at more first pitches, second pitches and all pitches than anyone else. He’d be better if he took a few more unintentional walks but at the end of the day you don’t fret too much about guys who produce at his level.
3. Jered Weaver and Howie Kendrick. Lackey and Guerrero represent the present of the Angels while Weaver and Kendrick represent the very near future. Weaver made the bigger splash as a rookie but Kendrick’s swing has many predicting batting titles to go with his clever glovework and sneaky power. As for Weaver, he sent his brother packing (although Jeff did get a World Series ring as a parting gift) and got the Angels back into the playoff race last year, heady feats for a guy who hadn’t been in the bigs before.

3 Things To Worry About

1. Gary Matthews Jr. Here’s the thing about Matthews: Even before the word hit that Sarge’s son was likely using more juice than Al Gore’s compound the contract he signed with the Angels was a drastic error. Matthews outperformed his previous efforts by so much last season that no reasonable person could have seen it as anything but an aberration, chemical or otherwise. He’ll provide great defense in center but will never be seen as anything but a disappointment when his bat returns to its natural level.
2. Garrett Anderson. A previous beneficiary of Stoneman’s largesse, Anderson is due $26 million over the next two years and is a liability both in the field and at the plate. He would have split time with Juan Rivera and Shea Hillenbrand in left and at DH but Rivera’s broken leg means that the Angels are relying on Anderson’s balky back and eroding skills every day until the All-Star Break or so. Neither Anderson nor Hillenbrand is good enough to hit behind Vlad, either, which will mean he’s swinging at more intentional walk bids this season.
3. Injuries. Rivera, Chone Figgins and Bartolo Colon are all going to start the season on the disabled list. Anderson and Guerrero have a history of back troubles and Weaver will miss his first couple of starts with a sore arm. That’s a long list of aches and pains for April and leaves the team searching for answers at several important positions.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Is Casey Kotchman a major league first baseman? He’s only 24 so it feels odd that it seems like Kotchman has been trying to make a splash with the Angels since Brian Downing and Bobby Grich still wore halos. He had mono last year which limited him to 88 plate appearances but it was his third underwhelming tour of duty in as many years so there’s serious reason to doubt that he will ever come around. If he doesn’t the Angels will be getting subpar production at first, third, left and DH which would leave the lineup quite short on runs.
2. Which Orlando Cabrera will show up this year? When the Angels picked up Orlando Cabrera before the 2005 season to replace David Eckstein they couldn’t have thought they were making a mistake. Cabrera had a huge 2003, won a World Series in 2004 and, at 31, was in his prime. So, imagine their surprise when he fell flat on his face in his inaugural season at the Big A and their chagrin when lil’ Eck won the World Series MVP award last fall. Cabrera was better in ’06 and needs to, at least, repeat that performance for the Angels to make good on my robust prediction for them.
3. Why haven’t I talked more about the pitching? Hey, back off invisible questioner! I talked about Lackey and Weaver and mentioned the spastic Colon’s ongoing physical ailments. But you’re right; I’ve paid short shrift to the division’s best rotation. Ervin Santana has 28 wins over the last two seasons and Kelvim Escobar has finally found a home near Disneyland after many years wandering through training rooms and bullpens across the major leagues. They round out that rotation and are ably backed up by a deep bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez still has a terrifying motion that makes me think Tommy John Surgery every time I see it but he’s done nothing but thrive as closer and he’s got quite the corps of set-up men. Scot Shields is the most consistent middleman in the majors, Justin Speier did well with Toronto and Hector Carrasco and Darren Oliver have filled all kinds of roles for all kinds of teams. It’s a good group.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

You know all those offensive troubles we talked about above? The Angels believe they have a silver bullet for solving them in Brandon Wood. He will start the year in Salt Lake City so that he can make the transition from short to third and unless he suffers an unforeseen malady he should be in the big league lineup sometime in July or August. He has the power that the big league crew is lacking and plays short well enough to project as a good third baseman as well. Wood, Kendrick and Weaver are the building blocks for the next decade which should start this season.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

The dirty little secret of the AL West is that it isn’t a particularly good division. The Red Sox and Yankees obscure a good Toronto team in the East and four Central teams can lay claim to hopes for the postseason but out West the seriously flawed Angels are my pick to go on to October. And it wasn’t a particularly difficult choice. The A’s, Mariners and Rangers are all lacking the requisite abilities to impress while the Angels, at least, have an elite pitching staff to give them a luster of accomplishment. The offense could come around, though I have serious doubts, but even if it doesn’t the rotation should carry the Angels past 85 wins and into the second season with a puncher’s chance of making good on Sports Illustrated’s prediction of a World Series championship.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Milwaukee Brewers

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Prince Fielder. Lost among one of the strongest rookie crops of recent memory was the excellent debut season for the somewhat smaller son of Big Daddy himself, Cecil Fielder. He showed the same kind of propensity for the long ball as his old man as well as the same hefty hindquarters. Actually, Prince stole seven bases so he’s a little more agile and is a better fielder as well. This year he’ll try to become the better Fielder.
2. The trade with Arizona. The Brewers did a good job of maximizing their return on effective starting pitcher Doug Davis. They picked up Johnny Estrada to do their catching, a monumental upgrade on Damien Miller at the plate and an equal tradeoff behind it. They also got two pitchers in Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino who figure to improve from the change of scenery away from hitter-happy Chase Field.
3. The rotation. The two Central divisions project to be the most competitive in baseball this season but only in the NL is that a euphemism for “somebody’s got to win the thing.” When you have five teams as tightly bunched as you do in the Senior Circuit, sorry Pirates, pitching can carry the day and no team has a better set of starters than the Brew Crew. Ben Sheets needs to stay healthy and Jeff Suppan got too much money, sure, but those two, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Vargas are a top-notch group that will keep the Brewers on top.

3 Things To Worry About

1. Leftfield. Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench aren’t happy about being in a platoon situation even though it is clearly what’s best for the team. If Milwaukee is going to contend for a playoff berth they can’t afford to have the substandard production each man turned in last season so attitude is a big factor going forward. Jenkins kills righties while being killed by southpaws and Mench is righty so a straight platoon is really the only answer. They need to get with the program or GM Doug Melvin needs to find players who will.
2. J.J. Hardy. The Brewers can get by without the astounding offensive production that Bill Hall gave them at short last season. For one thing Hall is still in the lineup, he’s just playing center, and for another Hardy has a reputation as quite the glovesmith. He needs to stay healthy to turn rep into reality, though, and hasn’t had much luck in that regard. Just 24, Hardy may already be on his last chance and if he goes down again he could find himself checking out classes at local community colleges.
3. Fielding. Third base is a group situation but none of the Corey Koskie/Craig Counsell/Tony Graffanino trio is going to make you forget Graig Nettles. Hardy has a good rep but Rickie Weeks is a butcher at second. The Prince is okay but the outfield is a mess. Hall is learning on the fly, the leftfield platoon isn’t blessed with amazing range and Corey Hart made his bones with 80’s pop not Maysian fielding talent.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Can Sheets stay healthy? The LSU product has never lacked for supporters among baseball cognoscenti. He walks less than a batter per nine innings while striking out almost one each inning, the kind of ratio that gets rewarded with Cy Young Awards and pretty ladies on each arm. You need to throw more than 106 innings to get those things, though, and Sheets can’t seem to stay in the lineup long enough to make good on all his promise. If this is the year he does, it could be time to engrave his name on a trophy or two.
2. Where is Rickie Weeks headed? Considered a can’t miss prospect, Weeks almost did in his first two years. He hasn’t been able to field, hasn’t shown much power or a surplus of patience at the plate that would make leadoff hitting his specialty. He won’t be 25 until this season is over, however, and still has a wealth of tools at his disposal. The Brewers hope he’s learned how to use them as a weapon against the opposition.
3. How’s the bullpen? Francisco Cordero went from Texas washout to Milwaukee’s Best after the Carlos Lee trade in midsummer brought him north. He supplanted the always-exciting but not always effective Derrick Turnbow at the back of the pen and restored some stability to the job. If Turnbow can bounce back to be an effective set-up guy the Brewer bullpen could be a good one. Brian Shouse, Jose Capellan and Aquino are all useful and experienced relievers and the veteran Elmer Dessens, just picked up from the Dodgers, is a savvy vet with experience in both the beginning and ends of games.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

Ryan Braun won’t do much to help fix the trouble the Brewers have catching and throwing the ball but he will provide some more thunder for the lineup. It won’t be on Opening Day as Braun’s never played above AA but at some point this season Milwaukee will toss out a Braun-Hardy-Weeks-Fielder infield that’s all homegrown and laden with hopes of a brighter tomorrow.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

I’ll confess to being a little crazy about the Brewers over the past three seasons. I’ve been a Sheets guy since day one and have held high hopes for Fielder since seeing a report on him while he was in high school. Bill Hall made me fall a little more in love with his out-of-nowhere remarkable summer and I’m intrigued by the additions of Suppan and Estrada to a team I felt had the core to contend. They’re young but they can pitch and they can hit. If the fact that they can’t catch doesn’t cause them much of a problem I think they can make things happen in the NL. As it is, they are my pick to win the Central.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Detroit Tigers

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Carlos Guillen. Every generation has a ginormously one-sided trade or two that one GM no doubt regrets long after he has checked into the Branch Rickey Home for Indigent Executives. Amos Rusie for Christy Mathewson, Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio, Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi and Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen to name some from yesteryear. The most recent example is when Dave Dombrowski sent the unmemorable Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (not that one) for Guillen before the 2004 season. He was injured for a large chunk of 2005 but has otherwise pounded the ball at the highest level, stolen bases and led the resurgence of baseball in the Motor City.
2. Jeremy Bonderman. While Guillen was leading the offense back Bonderman was doing the same for the pitching staff. Rushed to the majors in 2003 Bonderman learned by failing and it’s paid off in a pitcher who, at 24, seems poised to challenge Johan Santana for the Cy Young again and again over the next decade.
3. Curtis Granderson. Granderson’s introduction to the casual baseball fan came when he fell during the World Series and became a poster child for the myriad breakdowns that handed the Cardinals the crown. That’s a shame because he had spent the summer making good on his tools-heavy profile. He’s fast, hits for power and plays a great centerfield; if he cuts down on his strikeouts (174 last season) he’ll be even more dangerous.

3 Things To Worry About

1. Kenny Rogers. Whether you believe he was cheating in the playoffs or not, it takes a diehard Gambler enthusiast to ignore the likelihood that he’s headed for a fall. If you do believe it, and you should, you’ll see Rogers’ miniscule strikeout rate and absurd home splits and see a pitcher who succeeded through smoke, mirrors and pine tar. With increased scrutiny of his thumb it’s hard to see him getting away with it for another season. If you don’t believe it, you look at his age, his current DL status and those same peripherals and wonder how he can keep pushing the sun up in the sky.
2. Sean Casey. It’s ironic that the only Tiger who hit in the postseason is one of the few who can’t hit at all in the regular season. Casey made a move from good parks for lefties in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to one that favors pitchers, something apparent in his 650 OPS after coming to the Tigers. Batting average is the only offensive asset he has and it will likely drop him below a sustainable level for a corner infielder this season.
3. Free swinging ways went out in the 70’s. Granderson, Guillen, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez, Chris Shelton and Marcus Thames all struck out at least 80 times last season. The only significant offensive addition, Gary Sheffield, isn’t quite so profligate with his hacks but is another player who will require the Kitties to play station-to-station baseball in 2007. That’s fine when you’re hitting 203 home runs and have a 3.84 team ERA. If either stat slides in the wrong direction the Tigers will be in some trouble.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Can Justin Verlander repeat his rookie success? There’s little doubt that Verlander has the makeup of a winning major league starter. He throws hard but doesn’t try to strike everybody out and looked well beyond 23 years of age during the run to the pennant. But he also threw 208 innings, well beyond anything his arm has done before, and history says that level of increase in work does not benefit you the next season. His arm tired down the stretch, another bad omen for his sophomore season.
2. When will Todd Jones cede the closer job? Although Jones and Joel Zumaya are 16 years apart in age they have some similarities. Each is a pudgy righthanders with facial hair who pitches out of the bullpen. But Jones relies on guile and experience to get outs, striking out 28 batters in 64 innings, and close games while Zumaya lets his flame tattooed arms do the talking. He regularly throws 100, whiffed 97 in 83 innings and decimated the Yankees during the ALDS. Jones has the job for now but Zumaya is going to have it sooner rather than later.
3. Were they proactive enough this winter? It’s always a fine line for teams that fall just short of winning it all, especially when they lose because of uncharacteristic mistakes. The Tigers made flub after flub in the World Series which made it easy to say that staying the course would be the right direction for this season. I’m not so sure. Sheffield is an upgrade to the offense but Casey, Placido Polanco and Craig Monroe are more problematic than helpful to the manufacture of runs. It’s harder to pinpoint changes on the pitching staff but Rogers and Verlander both figure to be worse this year and Nate Robertson, Fernando Rodney and Jones are also candidates for backslide.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

The best prospect in the Tiger system is an outfielder by the name of Cameron Maybin. He’s got all five tools and an iridescent future but it isn’t starting this summer. Andrew Miller, on the other hand, went right from North Carolina to the Tiger pen in ’06. He will be in Toledo readying for his eventual move into the Motown rotation and when he is ready the Tigers will have themselves a 6’6” lefty who throws heat and keeps the ball on the ground. A nice backup for Bonderman and Verlander through many muggy summers on the lower peninsula.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

Unless you are a Royals fan you can state a reasonable case for your Central Division team’s chances of taking the crown. The Twins point to Santana, Mauer and Morneau while the White Sox still have the same kind of mix that brought them the 2005 World Series trophy. The Indians have an enviable collection of talent on the mound and at the plate and, as you’ve just read, the Tigers return essentially the same team that won the AL a year ago. What’s not in those resumes is the managers and I’ll take Jim Leyland over Eric Wedge, Ozzie Guillen and Ron Gardenhire, even if I thought he was the wrong man this time last year. He got so much out of this team a year ago and pushed the right button every single time – I don’t think you can overrate the way he outcoached Joe Torre in the ALDS, for example – that I think the Tiger shortcomings will be overcome.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - New York Mets

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose. Mao’s Great Leap Forward was a farce that led to famine, death and poverty across China. Jose Reyes’ Great Leap Forward brought the Mets to the doorstep of the World Series. Reyes improved every part of his offensive game by leaps and bounds in 2006 and only a pessimist would think that those gains will go away this summer. He’s on the cusp of superstardom, something that’s contagious on the left side of the Met infield.
2. David Wright. Wright may have actually had a better season in 2005 than he did in 2006 but the Mets will take five years of either one during the contract extension they signed last summer. That extension, worth $55 million, became a bargain during the offseason spending spree, and will cover the period when Wright goes from nascent star to national darling of the Derek Jeter variety.
3. Carlos y Carlos. Beltran improved on a desultory 2005 and showed the Flushing faithful why he was the biggest star of that year’s free agent bazaar. His 41 homers tied a Met record, his defense is nonpareil in center and he makes fewer waves than a pebble in the middle of Lake Michigan. Delgado brings middle of the lineup thunder and copious smiles to the mix, both key to surviving the long, hot New York summer. 

3 Things To Worry About

1. Tom Glavine. In the last 20 years only eight 41-year old pitchers have thrown more than 150 innings in a season. Glavine just missed 200 IP last year, even with the blood clot scare, and pitched very well but he’s got very little coverage behind him this time around. The Mets need him to make every start and pitch well in most of them to help preserve a bullpen that will need one day of rest out of five.
2. Jose Valentin. He rescued the Mets last season after they tried everybody this side of Chuck Knoblauch at the second sack. Valentin gave them steady defense, unexpected power and the ability to make trades to fill other needs but he may be the one who needs rescuing this time around. It’s more likely Valentin will collapse than he will turn in a similar season.
3. Corner Outfielders. If you accept that Moises Alou will only play 110-120 games then you won’t be as disappointed with him as you will be with Shawn Green. Alou will upgrade the offense from the Cliff Floyd/Endy Chavez level and Chavez is still around to bail the Amazins out defensively when need be. In right, however, the Mets need a breakout Lastings Milledge season to rescue them from the mediocrity of Green. If Alou’s injuries crop up and Milledge fails to seize the day, the Mets will be very top-heavy offensively. 

3 Questions To Answer

1. What’s the plan for the rotation, a.k.a. is Pedro gonna pitch? After Glavine, the Mets have penciled in El Duque, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey. I love the Duke and will never root against him, but he’s got a lot of miles on him and was lost for a season and a half before coming to the Mets. Maine had a .225 batting average against on balls in play last year; the typical is .290 which equals rude awakening for one of 2006’s bright spots. Perez was jettisoned by the Pirates and Pelfrey is a rookie, so when you take everything together you find a team that’s going to be desperate for a second-half of Pedro or they’ll be beating the bushes for trades. There’s just too much risk and not enough reward for this rotation to go the distance.
2. Will the bullpen be as good as it was last year? This is the corollary to the above question. Last year the Mets got strong performances from the since-departed Chad Bradford, since-injured Duaner Sanchez and since-suspended Guillermo Mota. That leaves Aaron Heilman, the overpaid Scott Schoenweis and erratic Ambiorix Burgos to set up Billy Wagner. It doesn’t look to be quite so smooth a sail for Willie Randolph and Rick Peterson this time around.
3. Can Paul Lo Duca do it twice in a row?  Lo Duca avoided the second-half slumps that haunted him in Los Angeles and Florida, impressive because of his off-field distractions as well as the amount of work he was doing for the Mets. He turns 35 in April, though, and is already defensively challenged. If his batting average slides the 30 points to his career norms it will take a lot of his offensive value with it and Lo Duca won’t be much of an asset.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

Mike Pelfrey has already won the fifth starter job and if he struggles the Mets may not look outside the organization for the next guy in line. Philip Humber, a.k.a. the lesser New York pitching prospect named Philip, made a successful comeback from Tommy John surgery last summer and will return to AAA to continue honing his command and control before trying to make a big league splash. As we discussed above, the need for starters is acute in Flushing, Humber figures to be one of those sought to fill that need.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

In reading over this preview, it struck me as negative, too negative in fact for the team that I see winning the NL East. Some of that has to do with the astounding season they had in 2006. They aren’t going to win 97 games again this season; in fact they could win 10 fewer games and still win the division to my way of thinking. The offense should remain the highest octane one in the National League and I believe that Omar Minaya is the kind of swashbuckling GM who will try to patch the holes in the pitching staff. Those two things keep the Mets ahead of the Phillies but those Phils will be nipping at their heels all summer. 

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - New York Yankees

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. A full season of Bobby Abreu. Abreu caught a lot of flack in Philadelphia because of his deliberate, patient approach to hitting but found a home with Joe Torre and a Yankee team that emphasizes those things. He responded with a spectacular second half after Brian Cashman fleeced the Phils for him and figures to drive in a ton of runs and be on base an awful lot this summer in the middle of baseball’s best lineup.
2. Derek Jeter. Never as good as the people who lionize him believe nor has he ever been as bad as his detractors claim, Jeter is simply what he is. A .330 hitter who plays okay defense, hits with some power, steals a couple of handfuls of bases and shows up every day. If I told you that I had a player like that, is that something you’d be interested in?
3. The bullpen. Mariano Rivera remains at the top of the closer food chain for the 10th straight season but he may actually see less work this season thanks to Cashman’s offseason maneuverings. Scott Proctor didn’t move to the rotations, Mike Myers returns to savage lefties and Kyle Farnsworth is also back to deliver his straight gas over the middle of the plate. Trade acquisitions Chris Britton and Luis Vizcaino, were the best middle men on Baltimore and Arizona, respectively, a year ago and give Torre a deeper assortment of arms than ever before.

3 Things To Worry About

1. The rotation. It’s a good thing they have so much relief available because even before Chien-Ming Wang’s hamstring pull the Yankees were looking thin on the hill to start games. Andy Pettitte’s got back problems, i.e. the injury which can never be fully healed, and Mike Mussina’s spent time on the DL in each of the last two seasons. The Carl Pavano saga is well-known and Kei Igawa is a cipher.
2. Jason Giambi. It’s a race against time for the decomposing slugger who has regained his batting eye and his power but seems to slow down a little more with each passing day. The full-time move to DH should protect some of his joints but should another ailment cost him significant time the Bombers are without another alternative. \
3. The bench. Here at The Feed, the way the Yankees construct their bench has long been a sore spot. This year is no different. Miguel Cairo has no usefulness in a baseball world full of worthy utilitymen who actually possess utility. Andy Phillips isn’t as good as Cairo. Josh Phelps could beat out Phillips but he’s been around the block without takers more than once. Todd Pratt is no alternative if the inevitable Jorge Posada injury should happen, which leaves Melky Cabrera as the sole bright spot. He’s also the most likely to be traded which will mean a lot of games where the Yanks lose their DH because they haven’t built a useful reserve faction.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Is Roger Clemens the savior? It certainly looks like the Yankees are the team that could use the Rocket the most, at least among the three teams deemed worthy of his presence. The Astros probably couldn’t contend with a few months of Clemens and the Sox have already committed a hefty sum to this year’s club. The Yankees, on the other hand, have saved their lucre, presumably to use on the one guy who can turn the rotation from a red flag to a green one. Look for Clemens in Pinstripes.
2. Can Robinson Cano learn patience? The Yankees may have been encouraged by the performance of Alfonso Soriano in Washington last season as the former Bomber finally showed that he’s willing to forego a swing at every pitch that comes his way. If Cano can show the same growth in that facet, he will become an even more dangerous hitter than the one who nearly won the batting crown last season.
3. And what of A-Rod? You knew this one was coming, right? In what amounts to a walk year with everything to prove I think you’re going to see massive offensive numbers from Rodriguez. And then you’re going to see him ride off to the sunset somewhere he doesn’t have to deal with a team leader who hates him, fans who despise him and a media only too willing to let him continually stick his foot in his mouth.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

You’ve probably heard of Philip Hughes. If you haven’t I’d love to welcome my first reader in a Thai prison but for those of you who have you know it’s a question of when and not if Hughes makes his New York debut. The injury to Wang, and Jeff Karstens to a lesser extent, may change the timetable a bit but I’m still a buyer of over-Memorial Day in the pool. The fear is if they don’t get Clemens they will need Hughes to have a Justin Verlander/Francisco Liriano-type impact on this season to go deep into the playoffs. It would be easier to ease him in without that kind of pressure but, Jake, that’s Chinatown for you.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

For their regular season finish I’m still picking them to win the division. I think the lineup is deep enough and good enough to join with a strong bullpen over 162 games to overcome a shaky rotation. The problem, as it has been the last two years, will come in the postseason and a short season without a stopper in the rotation who goes out and wins games with the pressure on high. Clemens would certainly be that guy, but it seems like a real stretch to wishcast Hughes into that spot as a rookie. Without either one another first-round exit seems all too likely.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Arizona Diamondbacks

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Youth gone wild. The Diamondbacks are probably the most envied organization in all of baseball for their mix of solid young veterans, younger potential All-Stars and a few older players sprinkled in to give the youngest baby snakes a bit more time to incubate on the farm. Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin are poised to build off impressive debuts while Miguel Montero and Chris Young hope for similar rookie results as they join the lineup this time around. The spending spree that got them the 2001 championship resulted in serious debt, building around so much youth will get them out from under without sacrificing the win column.
2. Brandon Webb. Only 28, Webb has established himself as the best pitcher in the National League and the leader of a rebuilt Diamondback rotation. He throws a ridiculously heavy sinker that results in almost 70% ground balls but unlike Chien-Ming Wang and other practicioners of the sink, he strikes out batters in bunches. A solid candidate to repeat as Cy Young winner.
3. Orlando Hudson. The rare D-Back who has shed his skin more than once, the O-Dog had a big second half to cap his first season as a National Leaguer. He’ll set the tone at the top of the lineup, so the Snakes hope that his .389 second-half on-base percentage is predictive of his 2007 but they’ll take his .354 overall if his glove and power remain healthy.   

3 Things To Worry About

1. The bullpen. You can’t win ‘em all and for the Diamondbacks the big loser is the relief corps. Jose Valverde is back for another year as the closer and his inconsistency will keep Mylanta sales high in the desert. Jorge Julio was traded to Florida, leaving the likes of Brandon Medders, Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon to rescue the starters. They are okay, one and all, but none makes a tempting replacement for Valverde.
2. Livan Hernandez. He was getting tuned up in Washington before heading out West for his final 10 starts and morphing back into the innings-gobbling above-average Major League starter he’s been, on and off, for a decade. He throws more pitches than a Hollywood screenwriter but shows no visible wear and tear for all his effort. Why worry then? That stint in the Capital, for one thing, and a Hernandez brother’s going to hit a wall, for another, and it won’t be pretty.
3. Eric Byrnes. Byrnes set a career high with 26 homers last year but he matched his power spike with a customarily low .313 on-base percentage. He’s miscast as a regular in the corner of the outfield but with Young and Quentin already up in center and right, respectively, Arizona doesn’t have a younger, cheaper or better option. They do have Jeff DaVanon and Scott Hairston as options but the former’s hurt and the latter is a born DH.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Was it New York or is the Unit done? The trade that brought Randy Johnson back to Chase Field is the kind of risk worth taking, especially since it didn’t cost the Diamondbacks any of their many upper echelon prospects. If Johnson recovers some productivity in the friendlier atmosphere they’ve got themselves a salty starter to back up Webb and if he doesn’t, well, they still have a bunch of guys who can take his place in 2008 and beyond. 
2. Who is Chad Tracy? In an era with David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman, someone’s sure to catch the short end of the stick among National Leaguers on the hot corner. It appears Tracy has drawn the short straw but if he’s under-recognized by the nation, he won’t be as long as keeps hitting .290 with 25 home runs and 80 RBI every season.
3. Are they too young? That’s the question of all questions for the Diamondbacks. If the pitching doesn’t come through, the team may struggle to be a consistent winner. Young players go through slumps and those slumps will surely affect a team with as many first and second year regulars as the Snakes. But if Webb, Johnson, Hernandez and Doug Davis provide stability on the mound the bats should come through often enough to keep Arizona well above .500.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

It’s almost unfair how deep the farm system goes in Arizona. All the regulars in their early 20’s and in the lineup are just the surface, down below are players like Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez and unsigned ’06 first-rounder Max Scherzer, who have All-Star written all over them. But none will start cashing in on that hype in ’07. Dustin Nippert, on the other hand, is battling for the fifth starter job and if he doesn’t win it outright will be on Alert 5 for a call-up in case of injury or ineffectiveness. He was one of the pitching prospects the Yankees didn’t get in the Johnson deal but probably one of the ones they should have held out for.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

If players like Drew, Quentin and Young had a little bit more of a track record in the show I would have little compunction about picking ‘Zona to finish first in the West. The Padres have superior pitching and more power but, if everyone keeps developing on schedule, they will have their hands full with a team that’s just starting to scratch the surface of their full abilities. That’s where the veteran rotation, Hudson and Tracy come into play. If they keep things headed in the right direction when the wetness behind the ears shows up, the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be out of the division or wild card race all year.

(Picture courtesy of Can't Stop The Bleeding)

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Oakland Athletics

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Huston Street. A team that’s going to score as rarely as Oakland is going to need a guy who can hold onto the leads they do get. Thankfully Street’s a top-tier closer who struggled with injuries last year yet still posted 37 saves and walked just 13 batters. Some may point to 11 blown saves as a black mark but I prefer to say that he had a little bad luck and that there are no red flags on this Street. Plus, the ladies love him.
2. Dan Haren. Rich Harden, who we will get to, may have more to say about where the A’s will finish, but Haren is the more reliable of the top two Oakland starters as the year begins. He’s pitched 265 more innings over the last two years than his better known teammate and has produced at a high level. Stingy with walks and nasty of fastball, Haren held down the number two job in Harden’s absence and is well suited to take over for Barry Zito as ace of the Athletics.
3. Milton Bradley. The flip side of the consistent Haren is the volatile gamesman Bradley. He didn’t attack anybody last year, which was good, but did miss 66 games with injury, which is bad. When he played he was very productive and reminded the baseball world why they put up with him even when he acts like a lunatic. If he’s healthy all year it would be a first, but it would also make him fabulously wealthy and make the A’s offense less anemic.

3 Things To Worry About

1. Bobby Crosby. 2005 was a pair of freak injuries – broken rib and ankle – that interrupted an otherwise excellent season. 2006 was one injury – a back strain – that may or may not have been the cause of a Wayne Tolleson-esque campaign for the former Rookie of the Year. He’s the offensive version of Harden, loads of talent but a body that just won’t cooperate long enough for him to flash his skills. Another limited campaign and/or production like last summer may spell his end with Oakland.
2. Jason Kendall. Frank Thomas left town because the A’s couldn’t match the offer he got from Toronto to go and continue his second act north of the border. In other, not unrelated, news, Kendall will get $8 million of Oakland’s greenbacks for hitting as many homers as I could, throwing out as many runners as Mackey Sasser or Matt LeCroy could and providing “grit.”
3. Mark Kotsay. Another injured warrior, Kotsay won’t play until May, at the earliest, because of offseason back surgery. They could rub a little dirt on it, patch things together and make do without one of their starters for a couple of months, except for the fact that when Kotsay comes back they don’t get any better. He’s overpaid at $7.5 million, a crummy hitter and mediocre fielder so when you add recovering from back surgery he’s a serious liability.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Can Rich Harden be Rich Harden? Like Crosby he had a second straight star-crossed campaign and, like Crosby, his 2006 was much worse than his 2005 giving rise to concerns about the cumulative affect of so much time on the pine. One of the things Oakland will miss most about Barry Zito, who has his flaws, is that he went out and made every start every season good or bad. Harden can’t even be counted on to do that, much less anchor the rotation.
2. Is Mike Piazza the white, mustachioed Thomas? For years we heard that Piazza should get away from the tools of ignorance and let his bat do all the talking for him. Now we get the chance to see just that as he takes over as the A’s DH but the chances for another monster season from that spot will likely elude Oakland. He’s not as good a hitter as Thomas, although he’s slow enough to hit in as many double plays, and the A’s will miss that thump in the middle of the lineup.
3. Was it an off-year for Eric Chavez or the beginning of the end? I vote off year. His numbers, outside of batting average, weren’t that far off of his established levels and he remains a good glove man. If he’s free of the forearm pains that limited his at-bats last year, be ready for articles lauding his comeback. Even if he never again approaches the halcyon days of the early aughts, Chavez is a good third baseman who will give the A’s their money’s worth for another two years at least.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

The A’s have several players who will be in the mix for big league jobs at this time next year and some of them will be in the majors for cups of coffee this season. But we’ll leave substantive discussions of Daric Barton, Travis Buck and Kurt Suzuki for another time and focus on Jason Windsor. The 24-year old righthander is still in the mix for the fifth starter job as I write this and even if he loses out to veterans Joe Kennedy and Brad Halsey you can bet on Windsor making his presence felt in the Bay Area this summer. How much of a presence he has is a matter of debate but he’s the only new face who figures to play a role with the A’s this season.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

Billy Beane has become the John Schuerholz of the American League. The Atlanta GM has always done things differently than other GM’s, partially because of his budget, yet made a habit of outperforming expectations. Beane has gotten more publicity for his style of budget beating roster construction, thank you Moneyball, and has reached the point Schuerholz did in the early part of the decade. You have to take the GM’s and their success into account when predicting how the teams will finish because of the way they’ve defied prognosticators in the past. On paper I don’t fancy this Oakland team more than Seattle yet I never thought twice about picking them before the Mariners. I did, however, hesitate to put the Angels in first which is my way of saying that the A’s will likely be better than you, or I, think. 

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Chicago Cubs

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. A healthy and focused Derrek Lee. All of baseball suffers when one of its best players misses a chunk of the season to injury but when such a player misses another chunk because his daughter’s sick it’s especially awful. Lee may never have another 2005 season, few players ever have, but if he can generate 35 home runs and be in the lineup every day the Cubs offense should flow ably through him.
2. Alfonso Soriano. Yes he’s getting paid too much money and yes his play in centerfield may make the soused bleacher bums retch. But he made great strides with his patience at the plate last season, is going to hit a ton of home runs at Wrigley and will help propel an offense that needs to carry the team to whatever wins they get this season. Unless it was a walk-year anomaly, Soriano seemed to have his on-field act together at the end of last year.
3. Carlos Zambrano. He’s looking for a long and lucrative extension from the Cubs so Zambrano is pitching for dollars right now, quite a concept when he’s been so successful without dollar signs popping up with every strikeout. He’s only 26 and has thrown nearly 1000 big league innings already with a 3.29 ERA and 865 strikeouts. Unless you worry that he might be overworked, there’s no reason to vote against keeping him around until the 2012 presidential election.

3 Things To Worry About

1. Cliff Floyd. The Cubs threw money at anyone in stirrups this winter and in their zeal to rebuild the team they made some mistakes. Floyd is a $3 million mistake. He barely played for the Mets last summer, hardly his first brush with the disabled list, and the team already had the very competent Matt Murton on hand for this season. When you see the dollars thrown at Soriano, Floyd, Mark DeRosa and the starters I guess there’s no reason to cry about a few of them being wasted but Floyd offers nothing they couldn’t have gotten for less.
2. Jason Marquis. The law of averages says that he won’t be as bad as he was in 2006. It also says that he won’t be as good as he was in 2004 or 2005. Therefore, the Cubs spent $21 million over three years for a back of the rotation starter who had problems giving up the longball before ever setting foot in the Friendly Confines. It’s true that the Cubs needed starting pitching. It’s a stretch to say that they needed it this badly.
3. Ryan Dempster. It’s a good thing that he’s taking ninja training because it won’t be long before no one has a use for his pitching skills. Dempster gave up two or more runs in 17 appearances last season, deadly for a closer because by the time you get to Plan B, you’ve either already lost or are about to lose. Hopefully a bullpen improved by Neal Cotts’ acquisition can help him be more successful in the future.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood? Any baseball fan knows that, despite the lack of interrogatory construction, that the above is indeed a question. Prior has been pushed out of the presumptive rotation by Angel Guzman, a pitcher for whom league average would be worthy of an ice cream cake. Wood is now a reliever and if he’s healthy will probably get a chance to be a closer but if my grandmother had balls she’d be…There’s very little hope left for either of the one-time would-be studs.
2. Will Ted Lilly survive inside the ivy? Lilly has been a successful pitcher for stretches but he’s never been a dominant one. Now that he’s got the big contract and the big expectations as the Cubs #2 will he be able to remain composed if things start going wrong? He’s prone to the longball and is a nibbler supreme, if he tries to become a strike thrower it’s not going to end well for him or the Cubbies.
3. Did they take the right approach in rebuilding? They spent a lot of money and brought in another big name manager but they didn’t do anything that separates them from the pack in the NL Central. The offense should be quite good if the middling on-base percentage doesn’t end up haunting them but the pitching staff is a mess and Piniella’s never been so good at managing that part of the team anyway. The Cubs have the veneer of a team that could fall apart after one losing streak and send Piniella back to be the butt of Steve Lyons jokes.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

Felix Pie has a terrific name and a bright future in the Chicago outfield. He’s been in center his whole career and will probably remain there in his return to AAA this season with Soriano sliding back to a corner when Pie’s ready to bake in the big leagues. The Cubs would also like to see him lose some of his Corey Patterson-esque tendencies between then and now but either way he’s a speedy player with developing power and good average.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

As I said above, I can see the Cubs going into the tank with a little adversity. It’s part of their history to not rise to the occasion, after all, and Lou Piniella can only change so much in his first six hours on the job. But I have a sneaky suspicion that they will accomplish more than another early flameout. I think they can pound the ball enough to overcome shaky pitching and they aren’t surrounded by teams that are heading for 90 wins. I think the Brewers have the best mix of any team in the division, that’s why I’m picking them first but the Cubs aren’t too far off the pace.