The Jets have a mighty good chance at pulling off their first home win against the Patriots since the second week of the 2000 season. The Pats are missing a pair of defensive stalwarts in Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour and haven't had a lot of chances to work with Randy Moss on offense which should leave them vulnerable to a quick start from Gang Green. Eric Mangini knows this and will likely be plotting something big early in the game to take advantage of his team's steadier status entering week one.
Unless that's just a mirage. The Jets have a neophyte at left guard, a running back who missed most of camp with an injury and a defense that is just getting used to Darrelle Revis, David Harris, David Bowens and other new faces. That neophyte guard, Jacob Bender, and running back, Thomas Jones, have to be at the top of their game to exploit Seymour's absence and open up the play action game for the passing game. Chad Pennington is heady enough to handle a complex plan designed to capitalize on New England's missing men but isn't the same true of Tom Brady? He and Moss might not have the rapport of Montana and Rice but he's still going to find the guys he needs to find. And none of them are the bug-eyed butterfingered Reche Caldwell. Throw in the superior offensive line and Laurence Maroney and it's hard to envision the Patriot offense missing a beat come Sunday.
It should be another nip and tuck battle between these rivals and the coaching staff that handles their deficiencies better should come out on top. I don't think it will be much more than a field goal margin of victory either way though. JETS (+6.5) over New England. The rest of the games are after the jump.
HOUSTON (-3) over Kansas City - They are talking about play counts for Larry Johnson but even with the not yet in form L.J. the Chiefs are going to struggle to pick up yards, even against the Texans. Their defense, meanwhile, will need to lock up Andre Johnson, a tall task that will evade them on Sunday.
Denver (-3) over BUFFALO - The Bills have new starters all across their offensive line and are missing three of their top defenders from 2006. The Broncos have a quarterback that has spent a lot of time in Mike Shanahan's system and Jay Cutler seems poised for a breakout season.
CLEVELAND (+4.5) over Pittsburgh - The Steelers begin the Mike Tomlin era with an easy opponent but that doesn't mean it will be an easy game. I'm not sold on Ben Roethlisberger the gunslinger nor am I sold on the meeting of defensive minds between Tomlin, a Dungy disciple, and Dick LeBeau, the holdover coordinator and a devout 3-4 believer.
Tennessee (+6.5) over JACKSONVILLE - I, on the other hand, believe in Vince.
ST. LOUIS (-1) over Carolina - Might as well be a pick-em game and tie goes to the home side with nothing else to go on.
Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY - The Packers are trying to find a running game and Donovan McNabb is going to be like a thoroughbred that finally gets a chance to run after a week in the stables. The Eagles will make a statement.
Atlanta (+3) over MINNESOTA - Bobby Petrino is a college coach and college coaches tend to do well with the pep talks. If he can't get the Falcons over in this one he might not get another chance.
WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami - The Dolphins defense is overrated and the Redskins can run the ball enough to keep Jason Campbell from having to do too much this week.
SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay - The Seahawks are healthy, rested and ready. The Bucs are a team that doesn't know itself yet.
Chicago (+6) over SAN DIEGO - The Chargers have some questions to answer about their wideouts and I don't see them trying to find those answers against the Bears defense. The Bears, on the other hand, aren't likely to risk Rex Grossman in the pocket against Shawne Merriman any more than they have to. That equals a low-scoring affair.
Detroit (+2.5) over OAKLAND - The Lions aren't a great team by any means but how are the Raiders favored in this one? I realize they have a good defense but they'd struggle to score against the Columbia Lions.
DALLAS (-5.5) over Giants - It's going to be a long season for Big Blue.
Baltimore (+2.5) over CINCINNATI - I expect the Ravens to continue their offensive exploits from the end of last season against a Bengal team that doesn't play good defense. I also expect the Bengal offensive line to wilt under the pressure of a Raven defense that only knows one speed.
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona - I picked them to be a wild card team but the 49ers could climb even higher this season. Their offense should be hitting on all cylinders thanks to a favorable opening matchup.
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