Earlier today at Epic Carnival I wrote a post about how quiet it might get around Cooperstown over the next few summers. Yes, Goose Gossage looks like he'll finally get in after years of near-misses and Rickey Henderson seems to be retired for good which makes him a go for 2009 but then you have three extremely solid candidates in Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar and Jeff Bagwell who might not be the slam dunks they appear to be. And that's about it, unless there's a sea change in the way voters regard Mark McGwire (and Raffy Palmeiro) or any of the non-Goose holdovers who haven't picked up his level of support in their years on the ballot.
Drew Silverman of The Evening Bulletin is looking beyond the coming soon candidates, though, and fixing his gaze on the coming in a while candidates. We agree that there are several absolutes playing in the big leagues although Silverman is a little more certain about the futures of Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa than I am given what happened with McGwire. Those absolutes include Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Manny Ramirez, Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez among position players. On the mound there's no way Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz aren't getting their tickets punched. Silverman then runs through a bunch of other candidates, his take on some of them was very interesting and I thought I'd share his thoughts and mine as well.
Frank Thomas - Yes from both of us. Sure 500 home runs doesn't mean as much as it once did but Thomas was the scariest hitter of the 90's, leading the league in OPS four times and finishing in the top ten of the MVP voting every year from 91-97. He won two of those awards and did it all without a whiff of steroids, something that should matter if it matters so much that other guys are tainted.
Craig Biggio - Yes from both of us. Another absolute for me, even if he's done nothing but pad his career totals for the past three seasons. I would have said yes even before that point and what he might lack in eye-popping individual seasons he makes up for with versatility and consistency while shifting between three positions.
Jeff Kent - No from Silverman, "He falls into my category of guys who were very good, but not great," but a yes from me. Kent's four most comparable players are all catchers, which is odd for a second baseman, but all four of them are in the Hall. It makes sense though because Yogi Berra, both Pudges and Johnny Bench all hit more than catchers are supposed to and Kent hit a lot more than most second basemen. He's a shitty guy but has posted 360 home runs, even with a relatively late start to his career, and won a MVP award. I don't see how you can have a Hall with Ryne Sandberg and without Jeff Kent.
Curt Schilling - No from Silverman, "He is a stellar postseason pitcher and a two-time World Series champion, but he needs to add 30-40 more wins to be Hall worthy," but a yes from me. His career wins aren't great but wins can be overrated. He ranks 14th in strikeouts but has the second best strikeout to walk ratio of all time, better than every pitcher ahead of him on the former list and you can't underrate how important his seven postseason wins and 2.06 playoff ERA are to his candidacy. To me, that makes 213 wins look a lot more like 240.
Chipper Jones - Yes from Silverman, "Chipper was the best offensive player on one of the great sports dynasties of the last 50 years," but a no from me. He's had more longevity than Don Mattingly but it's a similar candidacy in my mind. A clutch of epic seasons but too much time lost to injury. I think it's great that the Braves have been so successful in Jones's tenure with the team but I'd rank him behind all three pitchers in terms of importance to that run and, for a team that only won once, that's a lot of players to get a boost from the same stretch.
Jim Thome - No from both. A one-dimensional player whose power numbers aren't that great given the era he played in.
Gary Sheffield - Yes from Silverman, "Sheffield was and still is a nightmare matchup for any pitcher he faces," but a no from me. At least not right now. The fear factor thing could be said of Dick Allen, Jim Rice, Albert Belle and several other players who aren't in the Hall of Fame. If Sheff hangs on for three or four more years, though, his career totals will be too good to ignore.
Omar Vizquel - No from both. A splendid fielder but he'd have to be to even enter this conversation with his offensive output. I can't see how he would be a HOFer and Dave Concepcion and Alan Trammell would be left out in the cold. Given the explosion of great shortstops in his era I think you have to be a more complete player than Vizquel.
Jim Edmonds - Yes from Silverman, "Edmonds was a terrific all-around player who excelled in every area of the game," but a no from me. Given his health he's not likely to be around long enough to compile the career stats of his competition and those injuries have conspired to rob him of too many games to make what's on the table paletteable enough. He's got a stronger case than I thought at first but still falls well short, in my opinion, of enshrinement status.
Luis Gonzalez - No from both. I wouldn't have much to say except that Silverman calls both Bonds and Sosa no brainers earlier and then writes of Gonzo - "his monster 2001 campaign wreaks of steroids, which, for the record, would serve as a Hall of Fame eliminator for Gonzalez - or anyone else on this list - as far as I'm concerned." If merely reeking (I'm assuming that's what he means as the other spelling means to inflict upon a person) of steroids is enough to bounce you, how are Bonds and Sosa in the free and clear? I'm not arguing Gonzo should be in because he certainly shouldn't but just point it out because, as the McGwire candidacy proved this year, the way steroids get treated by the writers will have more impact on the way the Hall looks 10 years from now than any other criteria.
(Thanks to Baseball Think Factory)
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