The Feed: These Baseball Previews Go To 11

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

Jake Peavy. Has any other pitcher had a better terrible season than Peavy had in 2006? Before you tell me that I don’t write the English that good, take a look at Peavy’s stats. 11-14 and a 4.09ERA aren’t numbers you associate with the elite pitchers of America but take a closer look and you’ll see that Peavy was unluckier than William H. Macy in The Cooler. He struck out 215 batters in 202 innings, had a peripheral (or expected) ERA of 3.47 is a statistical measure of bad luck and the Pods should have gone 18-14 in his starts. The natural swing of the pendulum back in his direction could mean Cy for the talented Peavy.
Trevor Hoffman. The National League’s closest American, unionized equivalent to Mariano Rivera, Hoffman became the all-time saves leader last summer. He has shown no signs of slowing down after 2003 shoulder surgery seemed to threaten his career and may throw the most devastating changeup these eyes have ever seen. Yes, including Pedro. You can set your clock to Hoffman as the bell that tolls upon his entrance makes quite clear.
Adrian Gonzalez. The first overall pick of the 2000 draft Gonzalez was very slow in developing. He went from Florida to Texas to San Diego before finally sticking in the big leagues but it seems that all the waiting and all the traveling was worthwhile. He hits for average and for power to all fields while wielding some spiffy leather in the field. And he’s only 25 in May.

3 Things To Worry About

The infield shuffle. The Padres made an interesting trade this winter when they dealt the impressive young second baseman Josh Barfield to Cleveland for another young player Kevin Kouzmanoff. He can pound the ball – he’s the first player to hit a grand slam in his first MLB at-bat, but has a back injury that’s cost him time in each of the last two seasons. He can’t field, either, but that’s less of a concern than his problems staying in the lineup. To replace Barfield they picked up Marcus Giles, which is nice for his brother Brian. It would be nice for the Pods if playing together spurs the Giles boys back from career-worst seasons. Both men will have to produce to make up for whatever Barfield does as his career unfolds.
David Wells. How many weight related maladies can one professional athlete suffer? Wells already beat gout but got a much worse diagnosis this spring when he found out that he has diabetes. The disease is a direct result of Wells’ lax approach to staying in shape and calls into question how heavily the Padres can rely on him during the 2007 season.
Leftfield. The departure of Dave Roberts left a hole in left that the Friars never really filled with an adequate replacement. Jose Cruz Jr. has the longest resume of the candidates for work but none of his recent work experience does much to recommend him for the job. Termel Sledge did okay with the Expos in 2004 and very well in AAA last year but neither of those really do much to inspire confidence. Jack Cust is the prize pig of sabermetricians everywhere for his excellent on-base and slugging percentages in the minors but has never made good on chances in the pros. Paul McNulty is another 4A All-Star who has offensive pedigree but the proof remains in the pudding for all of these guys.

3 Questions To Answer

Is San Diego’s Chris Young the best Chris Young in the West? Arizona rookie centerfielder Chris Young should challenge for the Rookie of the Year award but the imposing former Princeton cager who pitches for the Pods could still be the more impressive Young. At 6’10” he struggles with keeping the ball down but when he does he’s damn near unhittable and it’s not stretching things too far to say that he could actually outperform Peavy and be the best starter at PETCO this summer. The addition of Greg Maddux could help him fine tune his physical gifts.
What did Khalil Greene ever do to anyone anyway? The paradigm of shortstops may have changed a decade ago with the holy A-Rod/Jeter/Nomar trilogy but that doesn’t mean that teams take power from that position for granted. Greene has hit 15 home runs in each of the last three seasons but has missed chunks of time with injury each year and those injuries seem to be taking their toll on the other facets of his game. A full season from Greene would help push the offense into the gear required for admission to October.
Will the Padres bat the right Giles brother in the leadoff spot? It seems likely that Marcus Giles will be handling the duties of leadoff hitter for the Friars this summer but that’s not the right brother for the job. Brian Giles has a career .408 on-base percentage and is coming off his worst year as a power hitter. That seems to add up to a move from the middle of the order to the top of it where his patience and experience will help set the table for his brother, Gonzalez, Mike Cameron and Kouzmanoff rather than suffering the continued regression of his pop.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

The Padres have done a poor job of drafting over the past few years. Greene is the only first round pick since 1998 to make the majors and mega-busts like Matt Bush, 2004’s first overall pick, outnumber the guys who panned out. Cesar Carillo, the 2005 first round pick, hopes to change that trend. He had elbow trouble last season but it seems inevitable that San Diego will have to replace Wells at some point this summer and they’d be very happy if Carillo shows enough to step into the rotation. Otherwise Kouzmanoff is the only rookie or younger who will make an impact on the veteran club.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

The Padres have the best pitching in the West and an intriguing offensive mix. There’s power all over the place but they play in a park that can hold down production. If Gonzalez continues to progress and Greene and Kouzmanoff remain healthy all year they should be able to overcome those stadium effects and score enough runs to make their pitchers look very good. But, if injuries strike and no leftfielder establishes himself it will be very hard for the Friars to shake free of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Neither of those pursuers is that far behind to begin with and a couple of bad breaks for the Padres could be enough to drop them into third.

Comments

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Posted by: ticketwood | May 08, 2007 at 06:17 AM