Two Reasons Not To Believe

The Yankees have won 9 of 12 and are three games above .500. That's causing some to re-evaluate their playoff chances. According to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds they now have a 23% chance of making it to the postseason with the Wild Card remaining their most likely position. Complete Sports is arguing that they have a better shot to win the division (actually, they're picking them to win it) and I can't disagree with that notion. They need to make up eight games to the Red Sox and sit seven back of the WC-leading Indians but it's always easier to pass one team than three. With the Twins and Mariners still ahead of them for the final berth that's asking for a lot of help.

Much has been made of the easy schedule ahead of the Yankees and it indeed sets up well for them. They've got 21 games before facing Cleveland on August 10th and not a one of them will be against a winning team while the Sox have to visit both Jacobs and Safeco Fields in that span. Throw in six head-to-head games with the Sox and the idea that the division is gone is a silly one. However continuing this stretch of good play will not be a fait accompli for the Bombers.

They got lucky last night when Jeremy Accardo balked because two of their trouble spots blew up once again. Kyle Farnsworth was miserable in the eighth inning and gave up the run that put them in a 2-1 hole because the Jays just sat back and teed off on his straight fastball. It's been reported far and wide that the team would love to trade him but who wants a pitcher that has so routinely failed at his task? The Dodgers don't. Based on their refusal to deal utility player Wilson Betemit for the reliever, and they need help in the pen more than a utility player hitting .225, the Dodgers share neither the blind faith or stupidity that Joe Torre exhibits by trotting Farnsworth out night after night.

The other trouble is Johnny Damon. Yes he walked twice and scored the first Yankee run but his average now sits at .238, he no longer plays the field and only has shown none of the power he did last year. The deal that brought him to New York always figured to get ugly at the end but the idea was for the last year of the four to be rough. Unlike Bobby Abreu, who has mixed hot and cold streaks, Damon hasn't been productive at any point in this season. It's now looking like the Yankees will have to pay someone to take him off their hands or suffer the consequences of their avarice for two more years. If Jason Giambi doesn't come back to take over the DH spot the Yankees will be looking at two unproductive spots in a lineup that needs to keep scoring runs to make the playoffs a reality.

Both Damon and Farnsworth were booed last night, Farnsworth before he even threw a pitch, and with the season in the balance it's hard to see how Brian Cashman can sit on a hand that includes the two of them in such integral roles. The idea was to use a reliever to bring in help for the bench/first base but without a steady route to Mariano Rivera an extra hand on the bench isn't worth much. That means the team has to deal from their minor league depth to make something happen, even if it's not a dramatic move it's hard to see how they can improve by trading the likes of Farnsworth or Scott Proctor. They've got 13 games (14 counting the resumption of the suspended contest in Baltimore) in the next 12 days, a killer stretch that should tell them where they stand as the deadline looms. 

There's every reason to believe that they can still make the postseason happen but it may be up to Cashman to make a tough decision that seals the deal. I don't envy him, his devotion to rebuilding the farm will pay dividends in the near future, but something needs to be done about the two players who are killing the team. 

Comments

[twins15]

Thanks for the link... as I wrote, I do think the Yankees have a good shot, but you touched on one of the bigger issues... they need some bullpen help, especially with all of these games coming up. Edwar Ramirez looks interesting, but they could probably use 1 or 2 more reliable guys down there.

[TheFeed]

It was a really good piece, I enjoyed it. I happened to go to the game last night and it's been a while since I've heard a crowd so against someone as Farnsworth. My wife asked me why everyone got so glum when he came in the game and it was true, there was a pall even before he gave up the run. If they can't get from the starters to Mo there's no way they can make up the ground.

[allonthefield]

With a fragile guy like Farnsworth, I think those boos become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Fans boo, he coughs it up. Then they boo even more. They need to trade him for whatever they can get.