The Feed

The Crystal Ball

We are about 48 hours away from pitch one of the 2007 baseball season and all month The Feed's been featuring previews of the teams, players and stories that will keep us entertained through October. We'll do a wrapup of the divisional picks, with unscientific predicted records, a few other predictions and, of course, our thoughts on how the postseason will shake out.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - San Diego Padres

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. Jake Peavy. Has any other pitcher had a better terrible season than Peavy had in 2006? Before you tell me that I don’t write the English that good, take a look at Peavy’s stats. 11-14 and a 4.09ERA aren’t numbers you associate with the elite pitchers of America but take a closer look and you’ll see that Peavy was unluckier than William H. Macy in The Cooler. He struck out 215 batters in 202 innings, had a peripheral (or expected) ERA of 3.47 is a statistical measure of bad luck and the Pods should have gone 18-14 in his starts. The natural swing of the pendulum back in his direction could mean Cy for the talented Peavy.
2. Trevor Hoffman. The National League’s closest American, unionized equivalent to Mariano Rivera, Hoffman became the all-time saves leader last summer. He has shown no signs of slowing down after 2003 shoulder surgery seemed to threaten his career and may throw the most devastating changeup these eyes have ever seen. Yes, including Pedro. You can set your clock to Hoffman as the bell that tolls upon his entrance makes quite clear.
3. Adrian Gonzalez. The first overall pick of the 2000 draft Gonzalez was very slow in developing. He went from Florida to Texas to San Diego before finally sticking in the big leagues but it seems that all the waiting and all the traveling was worthwhile. He hits for average and for power to all fields while wielding some spiffy leather in the field. And he’s only 25 in May. 

3 Things To Worry About

1. The infield shuffle. The Padres made an interesting trade this winter when they dealt the impressive young second baseman Josh Barfield to Cleveland for another young player Kevin Kouzmanoff. He can pound the ball – he’s the first player to hit a grand slam in his first MLB at-bat, but has a back injury that’s cost him time in each of the last two seasons. He can’t field, either, but that’s less of a concern than his problems staying in the lineup. To replace Barfield they picked up Marcus Giles, which is nice for his brother Brian. It would be nice for the Pods if playing together spurs the Giles boys back from career-worst seasons. Both men will have to produce to make up for whatever Barfield does as his career unfolds.
2. David Wells. How many weight related maladies can one professional athlete suffer? Wells already beat gout but got a much worse diagnosis this spring when he found out that he has diabetes. The disease is a direct result of Wells’ lax approach to staying in shape and calls into question how heavily the Padres can rely on him during the 2007 season.
3. Leftfield. The departure of Dave Roberts left a hole in left that the Friars never really filled with an adequate replacement. Jose Cruz Jr. has the longest resume of the candidates for work but none of his recent work experience does much to recommend him for the job. Termel Sledge did okay with the Expos in 2004 and very well in AAA last year but neither of those really do much to inspire confidence. Jack Cust is the prize pig of sabermetricians everywhere for his excellent on-base and slugging percentages in the minors but has never made good on chances in the pros. Paul McNulty is another 4A All-Star who has offensive pedigree but the proof remains in the pudding for all of these guys. 

3 Questions To Answer

1. Is San Diego’s Chris Young the best Chris Young in the West? Arizona rookie centerfielder Chris Young should challenge for the Rookie of the Year award but the imposing former Princeton cager who pitches for the Pods could still be the more impressive Young. At 6’10” he struggles with keeping the ball down but when he does he’s damn near unhittable and it’s not stretching things too far to say that he could actually outperform Peavy and be the best starter at PETCO this summer. The addition of Greg Maddux could help him fine tune his physical gifts. 
2. What did Khalil Greene ever do to anyone anyway? The paradigm of shortstops may have changed a decade ago with the holy A-Rod/Jeter/Nomar trilogy but that doesn’t mean that teams take power from that position for granted. Greene has hit 15 home runs in each of the last three seasons but has missed chunks of time with injury each year and those injuries seem to be taking their toll on the other facets of his game. A full season from Greene would help push the offense into the gear required for admission to October.
3. Will the Padres bat the right Giles brother in the leadoff spot? It seems likely that Marcus Giles will be handling the duties of leadoff hitter for the Friars this summer but that’s not the right brother for the job. Brian Giles has a career .408 on-base percentage and is coming off his worst year as a power hitter. That seems to add up to a move from the middle of the order to the top of it where his patience and experience will help set the table for his brother, Gonzalez, Mike Cameron and Kouzmanoff rather than suffering the continued regression of his pop.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

The Padres have done a poor job of drafting over the past few years. Greene is the only first round pick since 1998 to make the majors and mega-busts like Matt Bush, 2004’s first overall pick, outnumber the guys who panned out. Cesar Carillo, the 2005 first round pick, hopes to change that trend. He had elbow trouble last season but it seems inevitable that San Diego will have to replace Wells at some point this summer and they’d be very happy if Carillo shows enough to step into the rotation. Otherwise Kouzmanoff is the only rookie or younger who will make an impact on the veteran club.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

The Padres have the best pitching in the West and an intriguing offensive mix. There’s power all over the place but they play in a park that can hold down production. If Gonzalez continues to progress and Greene and Kouzmanoff remain healthy all year they should be able to overcome those stadium effects and score enough runs to make their pitchers look very good. But, if injuries strike and no leftfielder establishes himself it will be very hard for the Friars to shake free of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Neither of those pursuers is that far behind to begin with and a couple of bad breaks for the Padres could be enough to drop them into third.

Oh No He Has Healt' Problems

Is Diego Maradona getting in shape for one last shot at a comeback? Uh, no.

Diego Maradona is in the news again and unfortunately it's not good news. The Argentine soccer hero was taken by an ambulance to a hospital on Thursday where is he is being treated and held against his will for alcoholism, excessive eating and smoking.

The 47-year-old is being sedated while his body fights the withdrawal symptoms brought on by the star's alcoholism.

He looks like a fatter, less healthy Nate Newton.

I'm Not Tired, I'm Pissed

A healthy tip of the cap to We Are The Postmen for their work digging up this gem of a videoclip on the Youtubes. It's really surprising that inline hockey doesn't get the A-level announcing talent.

The Thorpedo Is Hepped Up On Testosterone

Were you wondering why Australian swimming great Ian Thorpe retired in November at the relatively young age of 24? No? Me neither but French newspaper L'Equipe was wondering and their wonderment has turned into the latest accusation of doping.

L'Equipe said Thorpe turned up irregular levels of testosterone and luteinizing hormone in a test on May 2006. Synthetic versions of testosterone, the male hormone, can act like steroids to improve performance. Luteinizing hormone is released by the pituitary gland and produces testosterone in men.

FINA, swimming's ruling organization, has appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, the highest tribunal in the sports world, to overturn a decision by Australia's anti-doping agency to close the case, L'Equipe said.

Steroid Nation, my go-to web source for all things doping related, hasn't covered this story yet so I can only go off of the info I've got on hand. I'm somewhat unsurprised that Australian officials would choose to dismiss the case based on a lack of scientific proof. I was recently Down Under and one thing I came away with from my travels across the country is that they have an unfortunate tendency to take the worst of things from this country and implement them into their own. Fast food abounds, the wealthy are lionized in the newspapers and on the television networks that they own and their Prime Minister John Howard is close with our President. So it doesn't strike me as that odd that they would choose to ignore something that indicated bad news and choose to dispute the ability of science to be of assistance in finding out the truth.

Either way, Thorpe's retirement makes me think that he was getting out of town one step ahead of the law. The next Olympics were less than two years away and Thorpe, a five-time gold medalist, is still young enough to do damage at the next Games. Retiring is a much more honorable way than banishment when it comes to ways of losing a chance at more medals.

Jim Harbaugh Knows What's Up

New Stanford Cardinal football coach Jim Harbaugh and I go way back. Really we do. Michigan's academic year ends kinda early, mid-late April, and many students will stay through June for a two month spring term. The appeal is that unlike the other 10 months of the year the weather is pleasant, no brutal cold or overwhelming humidity to make you curse all existence, and that limited class schedules lead to a lot of outdoor drinking. It's good fun.

Anyway, I stayed for spring term my sophomore year and at one such drinking event, a kegger (in the parlance of our times) at someone's house who should show up but the ex-Wolverine quarterback himself. He was in town for his charity golf tournament and since it was 1996 was pretty well known on sight because of his Blue career as well and because he'd taken the Colts to the AFC Championship game (and a dropped Hail Mary from the Super Bowl) a few months before. Anyway, Jim had a good time at the party, talked some shit about other players and teams, got drunk and left with a slutty if ugly girl. The last part is interesting because announcers were really fond of calling Harbaugh a family man during games and how if there was anything he loved more than football it was his wife and kids. I dare say that if the internet and cell phones were in their current state back then Mr. Harbaugh would have been emblazoned on web sites nationwide in a matter of days.

So what? So now that he's coach of the Cardinal, Harbaugh isn't able to get away with shooting his mouth off anymore. He's gotten himself into a war of words with Pete Carroll, the coach of USC, by claiming that Carroll's on the way out of Trojanville.

"Perhaps the reason it's been up and down here [at Stanford] is that no one has stayed here 20 years," Harbaugh told Dodd. "… Charlie Weis is going to do that at Notre Dame. [Jim] Tressel at Ohio State. Pete's doing it. He's only got one more year, though. He'll be there one more year. That's what I've heard. I heard it inside the staff."

Carroll was reportedly miffed at Harbaugh's suggestion, although the denial he issued was hardly dripping with hellfire and brimstone.

"If he's going to make statements like that, he ought to get his information right," Carroll said. "And if he has any questions about it he should call me."

I think Harbaugh's doing the same thing he did at that party 10 years ago, trying to get some shit started. Stanford has fallen off the map during the Buddy Teevens/Walt Harris "era" and Harbaugh comes from a school that is crazy for college football and played for a coach who engaged in an epic feud with Woody Hayes. Give him credit for trying to do the same thing with Carroll.

And if it is true that Carroll is riding off into the sunset, I will give a piece of free advice to the hiring committee at USC: Don't replace him with Rich Kotite.

These Baseball Previews Go To 11 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Most of your baseball previews are playing their hearts out but they stop at 10. Where can these other blokes go? We like to push things over the cliff at The Feed though so you know what we do? That's right. We turn it up to 11. Three things to like, three things to worry about, three questions to answer, one kid on the farm and one predicted finish. That adds up to the most powerful preview you can find. Because it goes to 11 and there’s none more louder, really, than 11. Check the rest of ‘em out here.

3 Things To Like

1. John Lackey. He doesn’t have the name of a dominant starter but he does have the stuff of one. He made a huge initial splash in the 2002 World Series run and hasn’t looked back since, using a lot of strikeouts to keep the ball in the park and needing only better run support to challenge the 20-win mark. Johan Santana has the inside track on every AL Cy Young Award but Lackey should be among the other votegetters come November.
2. Vladimir Guerrero. Batters that make contact with the ease Vlad does simply aren’t supposed to do so much damage when they hit the ball. Usually they are content to be speedy singles hitters but Guerrero remains one of the most feared power hitters in baseball even though he swings at more first pitches, second pitches and all pitches than anyone else. He’d be better if he took a few more unintentional walks but at the end of the day you don’t fret too much about guys who produce at his level.
3. Jered Weaver and Howie Kendrick. Lackey and Guerrero represent the present of the Angels while Weaver and Kendrick represent the very near future. Weaver made the bigger splash as a rookie but Kendrick’s swing has many predicting batting titles to go with his clever glovework and sneaky power. As for Weaver, he sent his brother packing (although Jeff did get a World Series ring as a parting gift) and got the Angels back into the playoff race last year, heady feats for a guy who hadn’t been in the bigs before.

3 Things To Worry About

1. Gary Matthews Jr. Here’s the thing about Matthews: Even before the word hit that Sarge’s son was likely using more juice than Al Gore’s compound the contract he signed with the Angels was a drastic error. Matthews outperformed his previous efforts by so much last season that no reasonable person could have seen it as anything but an aberration, chemical or otherwise. He’ll provide great defense in center but will never be seen as anything but a disappointment when his bat returns to its natural level.
2. Garrett Anderson. A previous beneficiary of Stoneman’s largesse, Anderson is due $26 million over the next two years and is a liability both in the field and at the plate. He would have split time with Juan Rivera and Shea Hillenbrand in left and at DH but Rivera’s broken leg means that the Angels are relying on Anderson’s balky back and eroding skills every day until the All-Star Break or so. Neither Anderson nor Hillenbrand is good enough to hit behind Vlad, either, which will mean he’s swinging at more intentional walk bids this season.
3. Injuries. Rivera, Chone Figgins and Bartolo Colon are all going to start the season on the disabled list. Anderson and Guerrero have a history of back troubles and Weaver will miss his first couple of starts with a sore arm. That’s a long list of aches and pains for April and leaves the team searching for answers at several important positions.

3 Questions To Answer

1. Is Casey Kotchman a major league first baseman? He’s only 24 so it feels odd that it seems like Kotchman has been trying to make a splash with the Angels since Brian Downing and Bobby Grich still wore halos. He had mono last year which limited him to 88 plate appearances but it was his third underwhelming tour of duty in as many years so there’s serious reason to doubt that he will ever come around. If he doesn’t the Angels will be getting subpar production at first, third, left and DH which would leave the lineup quite short on runs.
2. Which Orlando Cabrera will show up this year? When the Angels picked up Orlando Cabrera before the 2005 season to replace David Eckstein they couldn’t have thought they were making a mistake. Cabrera had a huge 2003, won a World Series in 2004 and, at 31, was in his prime. So, imagine their surprise when he fell flat on his face in his inaugural season at the Big A and their chagrin when lil’ Eck won the World Series MVP award last fall. Cabrera was better in ’06 and needs to, at least, repeat that performance for the Angels to make good on my robust prediction for them.
3. Why haven’t I talked more about the pitching? Hey, back off invisible questioner! I talked about Lackey and Weaver and mentioned the spastic Colon’s ongoing physical ailments. But you’re right; I’ve paid short shrift to the division’s best rotation. Ervin Santana has 28 wins over the last two seasons and Kelvim Escobar has finally found a home near Disneyland after many years wandering through training rooms and bullpens across the major leagues. They round out that rotation and are ably backed up by a deep bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez still has a terrifying motion that makes me think Tommy John Surgery every time I see it but he’s done nothing but thrive as closer and he’s got quite the corps of set-up men. Scot Shields is the most consistent middleman in the majors, Justin Speier did well with Toronto and Hector Carrasco and Darren Oliver have filled all kinds of roles for all kinds of teams. It’s a good group.

1 Kid On The Farm (For Now)

You know all those offensive troubles we talked about above? The Angels believe they have a silver bullet for solving them in Brandon Wood. He will start the year in Salt Lake City so that he can make the transition from short to third and unless he suffers an unforeseen malady he should be in the big league lineup sometime in July or August. He has the power that the big league crew is lacking and plays short well enough to project as a good third baseman as well. Wood, Kendrick and Weaver are the building blocks for the next decade which should start this season.

1 Prediction About Their Finish

The dirty little secret of the AL West is that it isn’t a particularly good division. The Red Sox and Yankees obscure a good Toronto team in the East and four Central teams can lay claim to hopes for the postseason but out West the seriously flawed Angels are my pick to go on to October. And it wasn’t a particularly difficult choice. The A’s, Mariners and Rangers are all lacking the requisite abilities to impress while the Angels, at least, have an elite pitching staff to give them a luster of accomplishment. The offense could come around, though I have serious doubts, but even if it doesn’t the rotation should carry the Angels past 85 wins and into the second season with a puncher’s chance of making good on Sports Illustrated’s prediction of a World Series championship.

Carl Pavano Can't Catch A Break

To say that Carl Pavano has had a star-crossed tenure with the New York Yankees is a little like saying that Tom Coughlin isn't really all that knowledgeable about what Adolf Hitler did to engender such hatred. Pavano has been injured, abused by both fans and teammates and subjected to endless conjecture about whether or not he would ever once again pitch in a big league game. The only silver lining in those hard times is that Pavano remained a very rich, good looking professional athlete which enabled him to snag high-grade poon like Alyssa Milano and Gia Allemand.

Things turned around for Pavano professionally this spring. He dodged the injury bullet despite a line drive off the foot and a swarm of bees surrounding him on the mound and because of injuries to other pitchers Pavano is going to get the ball on Opening Day against Tampa on Monday. It's an epic change of fortune for the righthander so it only makes sense that his off-field good times are coming to an end. Allemand told the New York Post that she dumped Pavano days before the biggest start of his career and just a couple of weeks after he took time off from training to attend to her while she was suffering an undisclosed medical problem. The Post quotes her interview with Steppin' Out magazine, in which she accuses the Yankee of cheating on her and said that the relationship was "as bad as Carl's pitching!"

If history is any guide this downturn on the playboy side of things should lead to good things for the Yankee rotation.

Ron Gant Did The Same Thing

Halle Berry's divorce from David Justice very nearly cost the world a chance to admire her lovely breasts (and Oscar-winning acting ability) in movies like Swordfish and Monster's Ball. Berry was despondent after her marriage to the former big league slugger came to an end and contemplated ending it all.

Berry, 40, admits in Parade magazine that she was so miserable in the wake of her break-up with baseball player David Justice, she attempted to gas herself. But she pulled out at the last minute. "I was sitting in my car, and I knew the gas was coming when I had an image of my mother [Judith] finding me," Berry told Parade. "She sacrificed so much for her children, and to end my life would be an incredibly selfish thing to do.

Anyone who saw Swordfish would certainly agree with that last statement.

Failing Up

Has a shirt ever been so prophetic?

The only other New England job open is Harvard, and that search is picking up speed, with former St. John's coach Mike Jarvis in the mix. Harvard, which fired Frank Sullivan this month, is scrambling to hire a black coach. The university has been embarrassed by its lack of a black head coach in its 41 varsity sports.

While Jarvis has been the early focus of attention, former Michigan coach Tommy Amaker has emerged as a contender.

Obviously Harvard is one of the few schools with a more pathetic basketball program than Michigan but, still, getting fired in Ann Arbor and ending up in Cambridge isn't such a terrible state of affairs. After the six seasons of abject failure that Amaker inflicted on Michigan it wouldn't be all that surprising if he never coached anywhere ever again. Of course his competition for the job, Jarvis, lost his gig at St. John's in the wake of scandals involving paying players, drug abuse and carousing for strippers while on the road. If only Dave Bliss were black, then Harvard could truly get someone worthy of their university's traditions.